I agree. It is a fair assessment. I wouldn’t say Obama is winning any more than I would have said Romney is winning when polls favored him a few days after his convention. The race is close. Obama benefits from incumbency and media impact. The GOP benefits from a crappy economy and general dissatisfaction with direction. If the election was today, I have no idea what would happen. The anti-Obama voter rolls are huge - 45%+ are strongly opposed. The DNC got their people fired up last week, too, and they have the GOTV (unions, etc). I think it would be close, but electorally, I think we would pick off at least 2 of the FL, VA, OH today. Ohio would be the least likely at this moment.
Obama has overseen the US credit downgrade, the fastest growth of the debt in history, a bad economy, embarrassing gaffes all over the world, no budget for the last three years, unpopular legislation, the list goes on an on.
A lot of this will come out in the debates. But Romney can't assume people are aware of anything. He needs to play offense and force Obama to defend his record -- that is his weak point.