Niall Ferguson: Why Obama Is Winning

Daily Beast ^ | Sept 10, 2012 | Niall Ferguson

[C19fan]

It’s a paradox. The economy is in the doldrums. Yet the incumbent is ahead in the polls. According to a huge body of research by political scientists, this is not supposed to happen. On the other side of the Atlantic, it hardly ever does. But in America today, the law of political gravity has been suspended.

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Or maybe, just maybe, this election is boiling down to a contest between white non-Hispanic men and everyone else. After all the high hopes of 2008, it will be depressing if that is the outcome of the Obama presidency: an electorate split along the dividing lines of race and sex.

[C19fan]

Lots of angst about has the US finally reached the tipping point of more people are sucking from the gov't teat than being productive citizens. As someone on another site commented all these people dropping out of the labor force and going on SSI. They will vote for the man who will support them for the rest of their lives even if this man's policies drove them from their job.

[fwdude]

I call BUNK on all of these polls. There are a lot of illegals being polled. Anyone can easily say that they are a registered voter to the pollsters.

To the extent that illegals can be prevented from voting by proper I.D. laws at the polling places, these numbers will more than reverse.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

Basically what I got out of this article; It’s no longer the economy, stupid. It’s the demographics, stupid.

I hope and pray that’s not the case.

[Milt3726]

The polls and what the media tells us is pure BS, I volunteer at the local RNC every weekend and this is what I received in an email this week: Thank you for your support and hard work.

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• Targeted Campaign: The Romney-Ryan campaign is running deeply local and targeted efforts in each of the states focusing on the voter groups that will make the difference on Election Day. Anyone asserting a “one-size-fits-all-campaign” effort is being put forward is simply misinformed, as evidenced by the 15 different ads released by the Romney Ryan campaign this past Friday and now running in nine states, including Wisconsin.
• New Money Advantage: All of this is not possible without resources, and the Romney-Ryan campaign and the Republican Party have a real advantage. In August alone, the Romney Victory effort raised more than $111 million, marking the third straight fundraising month of more than $100 million, putting us on a very strong financial footing for the final two months.
• Energy and Enthusiasm: CNN/ORC’s most recent polling shows that 62% of Republicans are “extremely” or “very” excited about this election, while only 56% of Democrats report being “extremely” or “very” excited. This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day. For instance, as of today, Victory volunteers have already knocked on more doors than during the entire 2008 campaign. (2.72 million in 2012 through September 8 compared to 2.43 million overall in 2008.)
• Romney’s Ground Game: During last weekend’s “Super Saturday,” we crossed the 20 million volunteer voter contact threshold. Also, the Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week during the 2008 campaign. More than 55,000 volunteers have knocked doors or made phone calls for Victory this year and that number is growing by the week. And volunteers have collected person-to-person identification information on nearly 1.7 million swing voters in battleground states thus far. And the numbers are even more startling when one looks at individual states. For instance, in Ohio alone, five times more phone calls and 28 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. This past Saturday, more than 100,000 doors were knocked on by Victory volunteers in the Buckeye State. And in Wisconsin, five times more phone calls and 72 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. And the list goes on and on.
Mitt Romney will be the next President. The outcome of this race will ultimately be determined in favor of Governor Romney because he has the better leadership skills, the better record, and the better vision for where he wants to take the country. These advantages are being fueled by the commitment and determination of volunteers and voters to change direction and move our country on a path toward economic growth and job creation. In short, the combination of having the superior candidate, being in a margin-of-error race with an incumbent President, having a cash advantage, and having an unprecedented grassroots effort and a winning message on the economy ensure that Americans will make a change in leadership in Washington on November 6

[Iron Munro]

[bestintxas]

Shoot, I misread title.

I thought it said “Why Obama is whining” so I was prepared to hear once again why it is “Bush’s fault”

[Perdogg]

posted here http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2928934/posts

[ZULU]

Still two months.

[RochesterNYconservative]

Didn’t David Axelrod start threatening polling organizations that show Romney in the lead? I heard that at least for the Gallup organization.

[Max in Utah]

They will vote for the man who will support them for the rest of their lives even if this man's policies drove them from their job.

If that's true, then they must be awfully short-sighted to not see where that road leads-- to economic ruin and our republic's destruction.