http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/ohio.html
2008 results where Obama won Ohio with 51% percent. I refuse to believe he can still get to 51%.
I don't see Romney doing as well as McCain did with blue collar voters. He was pushed because the consultants think swing voters are all like them, wealthy liberals with advanced degrees who like tax cuts, abortion and gay marriage. But there are at least as many swing-voting "Reagan Democrats" who don't like rich people but do like God and guns. Most consultants have probably never met one of the latter people in their life though and are not convinced they exist.
I can tell you that I do not hang out with many Dems or “indies” but of those here in OH that I know, many have announced they will vote fro Romney, mostly women.