For crying out loud, he is getting an expected and normal convention bounce. It will fade. I think we are fairly well positioned.
People keep mentioning swing states. Here are the latest average of polls in all 11 “swing states” as recorded in RCP. Keep in mind that almost all these state polls are taken 2d and 3rd week of August, pre-September, almost all taken in the period when Romney surged by three points after choosing Ryan. Most state polls waited until after the Dem convention to update so we will see a slew of polls from the swing states over the next 7-10 days, which will show either Romney tightening the gap and taking over the lead within MOE in some states. Or they might show that Obama is returning to his early-August leads. Who knows?
9/9 swing states
• New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) +3.5 average for Obama, last poll in August +6 Obama... 2008 Obama +9.6
• Wisconsin (10) +1.4 Obama, Ryan selection brought it up to a Romney advantage but last two polls back to • Obama lead... 2008 Obama +13.9
• Colorado (9) Obama +3.4... 2008 Obama +9.0
• Florida (29) Obama +1.7... 2008 Obama +2.8
• Iowa (6) Obama +.02... 2008 Obama +9.5
• Michigan (16) Obama +4.0, polls average Obama +3-7 with one tie... 2008 Obama +16.4
• Nevada (6) Obama +3.3... 2008 Obama +12.5
• Ohio (18) Obama +2.2... 2008 Obama +4.6
• Virginia (13) Obama +0.6... 2008 Obama +6.3
• North Carolina (15) Romney +2.0... 2008 Obama +0.3
Some people keep mentioning that Maine could give one electoral vote to Romney since it is a state splits EV. High doubtful
• Maine +15.4 Obama... 2008 Obama +17.3, not in play by any definition