Consider this:
Then consider Dean's analysis of the three key states in that formula. Then reconsider the formula in light of that analysis, and Mittens need only win IA (IN & NC & NE1 are going red without much of a fight) and it's over. Why? Reapportionment. You're gonna hear a lot about that word used in the same sentence as President-elect Mittens.
No NM, no CO, no NH, no give-a-damn about any other blueredpurple state, you simply run the Bush II map and yet SUBTRACT NM, CO, and even NV, and Mittens is the next President of the United States. Period. 272-266. Mittens knows this, Bobo knows this.
Florida: Florida is a key state where skewed media polls and those who wish to believe them rather than know how the race actually stands, cause many to buy into the perception that Obama is running stronger than he is. The RCP average has Obama at 47.3 percent ot Romney at 46.7 percent. This average includes two blatantly skewed media polls and that of the Democrat-leaning firm Public Policy Polling. The remaining three polls, if averaged, would show a Romney lead of 47.0 percent to 45.7 percent. Florida leans Republican.Virginia: The RCP average is 47.3 percent Obama to 46.7 Romney, which includes the PPP poll showing Obama leading by five percent, which is clearly an outlier. Factoring that out, the other two surveys average to Romney a 1.5 percent lead. Virginia remains in the category of leaning Republican.
Ohio: Despite including two polls that over-sample Democrats and feature skewed results (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac and Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cin.), the RCP average shows Obama barely leading the state by a 46.2 percent to 45.5 percent margin. The remaining polls would indicate a Romney lead of 45.8 percent to 44.5 percent. Both campaigns are focusing heavily on Ohio and it will be close but Romney will win it by a few percent. Ohio leans Republican.
I’m with you on this. Excellent assessment!