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To: KansasGirl
Did you read the analysis? It sounds spot on to me.

I did, and parts of it are confusing as hell. First, it's hard to take them seriously when they have Massachusetts as 'lean Democrat'. That's like saying Texas 'leans Republican'. And then take what they said about New Hampshire:

"The RCP average favor Obama by only 3.5 percent with both candidates well under 50 percent. The latest PPP survey is an outlier, and the average of the other three polls listed would place Obama at 47.3 percent to Romney at 44.7 percent. Most undecided voters will break for Obama and New Hampshire will return to its historic pattern of voting for the Republican nominee."

So having noted that Obama is ahead and predicting the undecided voters will break for Obama, the analysts somehow come to the conclusion that the state will go for Romney. How the heck did they stagger to that conclusion?

I expect Romney to win, but with 317 electoral votes? No. I think it'll be between 273 and 290.

106 posted on 09/09/2012 6:40:53 PM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
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To: Delhi Rebels; KansasGirl
the undecided voters will break for Obama

That's a typo in the original, read it as "break for Romney" and the whole thing makes sense.

Remember, it's standard acceptance that late undecideds will break for the challenger.

117 posted on 09/09/2012 7:06:57 PM PDT by smoothsailing (President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people - Clint Eastwood)
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