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To: snarkytart

I think you misunderstand the Bradley Effect.

It isn’t shame about electing a black guy ... it is white people having trouble telling pollsters they’ll vote against a black guy for fear of the pollster thinking they’re racist. There may be some of that here.

Mostly, I think skewed samples are the problem. Recent polls have shown Romney up 15 among independents, up on the economy, roughly even on likeablility, high dissatisfaction with Obama, country headed in the wrong direction, etc.

Internal numbers don’t square with an even race. Not sure why ... but they just don’t. Couple that with high enthusiasm on the right, general malaise on the left ... I don’t think this is as close as these polls look.

SnakeDoc


75 posted on 09/08/2012 12:20:43 PM PDT by SnakeDoctor ("I've shot people I like more for less." -- Raylan Givens, Justified)
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To: SnakeDoctor

In 2008, Obama won the independents by 8 points.

If Romney is really 15 points ahead with independents at this time, and maintains that margin through November 6th, then Romney is the 45th president of these United States.


150 posted on 09/08/2012 2:18:20 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (If people don't have to show an ID to vote, why do they have to show one to purchase a firearm?.)
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