McCain took Duvall by a scant 1% in 2008. 192k to 197k, and the gimme dat welfare crowd has expanded mightily in North Florida in the last four years. If you don’t think R2 needs to fight for every vote your not accounting for the effect of the growth the entitlement crowd.
Yes, and as of last July, the unemployment rate in Duval County was 9.5%. Obama’s not going to make up any ground there from 2008.
Ideally, you’d want to run ads in every market, encouraging your base to come out. But there’s only a fixed amount of money to spend. So in areas you’re going to win (like North Florida), you do a lot of grassroots campaigning - you get the county GOP organizations involved to register more Republicans and get them out to vote.