Posted on 09/07/2012 5:12:01 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 7, 2012 - National General Election Ballot
| National | |
| Likely voters | Sep 4-6 |
| Obama | 46% |
| Romney | 49% |
| Other/Undecided | 5% |
| Sample size: 1200 likely voters dates: September 4-6, 2012 points and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan? (names rotated) |
|
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 85% to 11% among self-described Democrats (38% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (34% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 49% to 44% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).
Romney leads Obama 54% to 41% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads Romney 51% to 45%.
Romney leads Obama 57% to 39% among white voters (76% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 89% to 5% among African American voters (12% of likely voters).
Obama leads Romney 50% to 46% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (51% of likely voters), Romney leads Obama 52% to 43%.
Romney leads Obama 50% to 46% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (83% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 48% to 45% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (17% of likely voters).
A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.
A total of 87% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Obama say they would never vote for Romney. A total of 89% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Romney say they would never vote for Obama.
I know. I think the same thing every day. As a college professor, I see the weak students who gravitate to the "communications," "journalism," etc. and other soft degrees. They are indoctrinated to the core and become our future media elites. Sometimes I believe Americans are going to have to experience something truly life-changing to come around. It will have to be profound because not even 9-11 was enough . . .
In New York City, where I live, David Dinkins, the first Black mayor, was a disaster. He was followed by Rudy Giuliani, who totally turned the city around, in much the same way the Chris Christie is turning New Jersey around. But Jersey is a state, and NYC is a city, so there’s a bit of difference. Christie is fixing the fiscal mess, while Giuliani was not only good on fiscal issues, he was amazing on quality of life issues.
Now here’s my point......nobody benefited more from Giuliani’s policies than Black people in poor, crime ridden neighborhoods. He made all these horrible neighborhoods better, and 10 years after he left office, some of the worst neighborhoods in NYC are continuing to improve. These are neighborhoods that first went into decline in the 1960s, and stayed that way for over 30 years.
I remember hearing stories about Black people in NYC who thought Giuliani was doing a great job, but they dare not say so in public, especially since the former Mayor was Black.
The bottom line is that it will be a long time before NYC ever elects another hard core Liberal as Mayor. Sure, Bloomberg is a total schmuck in many ways. Can’t stand the guy. But while he’s into central planning and nanny state meddling, he’s still pretty Centrist on a lot of issues.
I believe that one of the main reasons that a hardcore Liberal won’t become Mayor of NYC any time soon, is because the Blacks don’t want to see their neighborhoods go back to the hell holes that they were for so many years.
So maybe, if Romney turns things around, after Obama made the economic situation so much worse for Blacks, we’ll see something similar happen nationally that happened in NYC. In other words, no more hardcore Liberals getting elected POTUS, because the Blacks will realize that as much as they like to rail against “the man”, when they got one of their own elected POTUS, he just made things worse for them, and then a White Republican made things better for them.
Just a thought, I know, but one worth pondering.
Very interesting, thanks for posting. I like the optimism, if we can keep liberals from running our cities, we’re better off as a nation. If we can keep them out of all levels of government, the sky’s the limit!
“The media is our enemy, not the Dems - they are incompetent.
What can we do about this? “
I think it’s already being done. Where do you get most of your news?
I get mine online (here, various blogs) and on conservative radio. I access virtually NO MSM anymore.
We have an alternative media, and it’s mostly radio and internet. Keep supporting and utilizing these alternatives.
“doesn’t matter. The only things that matter are Florida, VA and Ohio and to a lesser extent, Colorado. Obama might lose the popular vote by a few million and still win this thing which is why voting for an actual candidate that can actually defeat Obama is important.”
I realized as much as I read the title article.
The “national poll numbers” count for little in this election.
What will make the difference is the vote totals in less than a dozen states (the ones you list above are most important). My take:
Florida — went for Obama last time, but Romney should win comfortably there this time. Although we haven’t yet seen how the left is going to attempt to scare the old folks regarding their Social Security and Medicare bennies.
Virginia — this is going to be critical, as Virgil Goode may pull enough votes to prevent either candidate from winning a majority, and the winner will be by plurality. Looks tough for Romney, be he MUST win Virginia to win the presidency.
Ohio — another tough one for Romney, went comfortably for Obama last time. Obama had been leading there for months, but within the last couple of days Romney seems to have eked out a lead. Whether he can hold it or not, can’t say. But without Ohio, Romney loses.
Colorado — I’ve come to the conclusion that the influx of liberals (from California and elsewhere) have probably “tipped” Colorado to “the blue side” for good. There may be an exception now or then, but at best it’s a toss-up right now and I sense it’s going to “go Obama”. Romney can win without Colorado (and it looks like all future Republican candidates will have to reckon on winning without it), but he has to win the preceding three states to have a shot at this.
Barring unforseen events, I predict Romney will win in the electoral college 270-268.
Wish I could be more optimistic, but that’s how I see it.
“If Obama loses popular votes by millions, Romney will get several states by default, including MA, IL and CA, I believe, since those states approved modified EC stand that gives their EC to the popular vote winner.”
That agreement amongst the states is not in effect (because it hasn’t been ratified by enough states to equal 270 electoral votes) — and if that day ever arrives, it will be rendered Unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.
“I believe that one of the main reasons that a hardcore Liberal won’t become Mayor of NYC any time soon...”
Yer dreamin’, my FRiend....
Not to mention that, Republicans are greatly overrepresented in the electoral college. There is a virtually zero chance of a Democrat winning electoral college but losing popular vote.
Beyond simple representation, people tend to think that states are little containers of isolation, but that just isn’t the case. You can’t win NC without winning NC, and you can’t win VA without winning NC, and so on. It’ll never happen. Just never.
I thought the decisions are with individual states? I meant, was there any ratification processes when New Hampshire decided to give the EV by CD? While it’s only very few EV, what NH does may decide who win the presidency.
I don’t think the turnout will be nearly as high this time for the “African-American” contingent. Very few will have the combination of wisdom and courage to vote AGAINST the won but I expect quite a few to simply stay home.
“Sometimes I think blacks are more about race than white people.”
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Sometimes? Those of us who are truly tuned in to the reality of the situation don’t think that sometimes, we KNOW IT all the time. With the exception of a small fringe of nutcases white people are much less concerned about race than black people. Show me where white gangs in America are going out looking for black people to attack. I work with white and black people every day and we all get along fine but the blacks in the group mention race about one hundred times for every time a white person mentions it, I am not exaggerating for effect, that is my honest estimate of the ratio.
I hear you! My father died in ‘95 and he said a short time before his death that the dumbest thing the country ever did was elect Reagan and then they turned around and elected him again! Now I have a stepson who is a 37 year old man child who actually thinks Obama should be reelected. I studiously avoid having to speak to him unless it is absolutely necessary. If we get into a conversation I know that it will end with me telling him he is a fool. He is the classical IQ genius but a fool in terms of understanding reality. He tries to deal with the world on a theoretical basis. I was the same way once but I grew out of it long before I reached his age. I don’t think he ever will.
I expect Romney to win but not by that margin. The country is vastly more crazy than it was back then, I think Obama could come out on TV and publicly declare that he is not even an American citizen, let alone natural born, admit that he faked everything and was actually groomed by Russian communists to take over and destroy America and he would still get forty two percent.
bookmarked
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.