Posted on 09/07/2012 5:12:01 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 7, 2012 - National General Election Ballot
| National | |
| Likely voters | Sep 4-6 |
| Obama | 46% |
| Romney | 49% |
| Other/Undecided | 5% |
| Sample size: 1200 likely voters dates: September 4-6, 2012 points and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan? (names rotated) |
|
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 85% to 11% among self-described Democrats (38% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (34% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 49% to 44% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).
Romney leads Obama 54% to 41% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads Romney 51% to 45%.
Romney leads Obama 57% to 39% among white voters (76% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 89% to 5% among African American voters (12% of likely voters).
Obama leads Romney 50% to 46% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (51% of likely voters), Romney leads Obama 52% to 43%.
Romney leads Obama 50% to 46% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (83% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 48% to 45% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (17% of likely voters).
A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.
A total of 87% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Obama say they would never vote for Romney. A total of 89% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Romney say they would never vote for Obama.
What can we do about this?
“Also, I don’t think blacks will make up 12% this time.”
No. They are not going to go vote Republican, but many of them will not bother to support the guy who supported them like he supported his brother George.
You don’t know how much I pray you’re right. Normally, I’d be even more optimistic, but the damn polls are all over the map. Now, I happen to think that most of the polls showing Zero up or tied are heavily over sampled of Dems, but you can argue that those reflect “real” party breakdowns.
If Obama loses popular votes by millions, Romney will get several states by default, including MA, IL and CA, I believe, since those states approved modified EC stand that gives their EC to the popular vote winner. They’ll be enough to give him the presidency.
Interesting internals including the women’s vote, age group and cell phones. All much more pro Romney than I would have guessed.
You’re right, that’s a posting error on my part. As Rick Perry would say; “Woops!”. ;-)
With regard to the battleground states, four year ago Obama outspent McCain enormously, all this spending being in the battle ground states. This advantage skewed Obama’s performance in the battleground states relative to his nationwide figure. This time, Obama will not have much if any advantage moneywise. Therefore, we can suppose that just about all the battleground states will fall one way or the other, in line with the nationwide popular vote. I’m talking of CO, FL, IA, NH, NV, OH, NC, VA and WI. If Romney wins the popular vote by at least 1 full point, he’ll win in the Electoral College.
that would be ironic since they pushed to get this through after Bush won in 2000.. ha.
Number of Republicans (vs. Democrats) in America Reaches Record High - Rasmussen
Aug ‘12 +4.3%
Nov ‘10 +1.3%
Nov ‘08 -7.6%
Nov ‘04 -1.6%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
Romney will win the popular vote by 4 to 6 points.
How about that! We could be looking at a blowout come Election Day. :)
Massive dem defeat in the making. They built that.
Never heard of this polling outfit, but I guess its another one to add to the pile.
It would be very ironic. Since the number of EV with the arrangements is over 100, Romney seem to pursue this route as well. All states with this system are blue states.
I think you’re correct. Romney by 4 to 6 points.
I think you’re correct. Romney by 4 to 6 points.
All three of those categories struck me too. We may be seeing something well beyond the T.E.A. Party phenomenen of 2010. For lack of a better term, for now I’ll just call it “The Great Awakening”. :)
Well this survey corresponds pretty with the economic projection from the Univ of Colorado.
They are projecting a D+4 turnout, less than the +7 in 2008. However in 2010 the turnout was even between the r’s and D’s. It that turnout model holds with the splits in this poll, assuming the 30% ind turnout from 2010, the race is
Romney 50.75%
Obama 44.70%
In this scenario ~4.5% undecided, if we assume 1.5% third party (consistent with other elections, that leaves 3% going to Romney & Obama assume a 2-1 split to the challenger (little lower than historical results), we end up at 53-46% Romney.
This tracks very closely to the results from the economic model.
If we plug in the +4 R-D split favoring R’s from Rasmussen the numbers become a huge blowout 54.8-43.9, seems almost too good to be true OTOH there are 23M unemployed and 89M of working age who don’t have a job.
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