[AuH2ORepublican]

The new AZ-09 would have given Obama a 51%-47% victory in 2008 and likely would have been a 49%-all tie in the 2004 presidential election, so it is not overwhelmingly liberal by any stretch. Tempe was the heart of the district that elected Schweikert in 2010 and had previously elected J.D. Hayworth several times. Sinema is well to the left of the district’s median, and Vernon Parker has a real opportunity to win in November. A great sign for us was that the GOP primary in AZ-09 had about 20% more voters than the Democrat primary—sure, the Democrats didn’t have a U.S. Senate primary while the GOP did, but it’s not as if the GOP primary was all that contested (Flake won with 69% against divided opposition).

[Cyber Liberty]

I agree with your analysis, but this: Tempe was the heart of the district that elected Schweikert in 2010 and had previously elected J.D. Hayworth several times. Liberal Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell defeated Hayworth. You say the heart of the district was Tempe, I say it was Mesa, and between the two was not a dependable seat (Hayworth defeated an incumbent Dem, IIRC). Now it's Tempe and downtown Phoenix. And a piece of Chandler.

This district was drawn for Democrats.