Posted on 09/04/2012 9:04:08 AM PDT by LS
Today's Swing State poll has pretty good news across the board for Romney/Ryan: in CO (once a source of GOP concern) it's tied; in WI, Romney is up 1; in FL and IA, he's up 2; in OH, it's tied; in PA, Romney is down 4; in NH, Romney down 5; and in NV (the worst) Romney is down 5 with ZEro at 50%.
WI has been hanging tough, CO and IA moving up for Romney; FL a little tight, but I just don't believe that number---I think it's 4-5 points; and PA is winnable. NV concerns me, and what the hell has happened to New Hampshire?
“If Texas is any indication, the Feds will kill or stall voter ID in all the states where it matters by November.”
That will be difficult for them in states that are not covered by the 1965 Civil Rights Act. In Texas, vote fraud won’t help them. so let Holder “concentrate” his efforts there. I believe that in some of the other states, the courts have already ruled the voter ID laws constitutional.
I think like Vermont, a former Republicn stronghold which flipped to the Democratic column years ago, New Hampshire is dealing with an influx of leftist refugees from Massachusetts and New York. These emigrants are bringing their idiotic politics with them.
It does beg the question that if liberalism, as practiced in Boston and New York City, is so great, why did these people find it necessary to move?
Obummer is clearly scared about CO.
He showed up last Tues in Fort Collins and again in Boulder Sunday.
Both talking to College students, both telling them to try and convert their parents.
Romney has been running lots of ads here but his presence has been fairly weak.
PA is winnable.
I would like to think so but since the state did not go for George W. than I can’t imagine the state going for Romney who is way more liberal than George W. Had Pennsylvania gone for George W. and just caught up with Obamamania in 2008 than I would agree with you about our chances with Pennsylvania in 2012.
What is interesting is have only seen 1 or 2 Obama yard signs and only a few bumper stickers. To the contray, I have seen lots(hundreds) of Romney signs here in NH.
The heavy liberal sections of NH are in and around the college towns(Keene-st College, Durham-UNH, Hanover-Dartmouth). Also, in the central part of NH in the lakes region has lots of retirees from everywhere. They do not like the property tax system because they own all the expensive lake front property. They are paying for the schools that they do not have kids in.
Believe it or not, most of the Massholes that move to NH are very conservative. The liberals tend to move here from the mid atlantic states.
“NV concerns me, and what the hell has happened to New Hampshire?”
If you click on the states he mentions in this article some of the polling data is from July. NH polling data is from June.
“Those out of state critters move in to escape high taxes and regulations and liberalism and bring the same darn thing and demand it once they get there.”
I did not know northern states suffered from carpetbaggers too. You have my sincere condolences, rooted in experience.
Oops! Sorry. Didn’t realize you are in Virginia.
Massachusetts does have a Republican party. It's called New Hampshire.
Looks like they've chosen "Die".
Spent many years in Maryland. Watched small town Maryland invaded. Got my assorted Carpetbaggers fleeing Norfolk, Newport News, etc now. They bring demands, traffic and City values but if you ask them, they tell you they were trying to get away from all that. City rats need to stay in the city.
The down ticket races are all overwhelmingly going Republican, thanks to redistricting. Our D Governor, Bev Purdue, had such lousy poll numbers that she declined to run for re-election. The Lt. Gov decided to run, but he has been spending most of his money introducing himself to NC since he had near ZERO profile over the last four years. Republican McCrory is leading him in all of the polls by a big margin.
In general, the Democrats have no motivation to come out to vote in November. The college crowd of 2008 is largely gone and what is left cannot fill 1/3rd of the stadium seats at UNC-CH for an Obama visit/rally.
The real teller is the near total lack of Obama 2012 stickers on cars in Chapel Hill. In 2008, over half the cars had some sticker displayed, whether it be Obama, HRC or Edwards. Of course, I have only seen one Romney sticker (on a pick-up truck), but, hey, this is Chapel Hill, the bluest part of NC.
The nail in the NC coffin for Obama was the gay marriage referendum which lost 60:40 and was largely defeated by a very unified Black church-going population. They are really mad at Obama for “evolving” his position toward gay marriage.
I seriously doubt many blacks will vote for Romney — maybe 2-3%, but the passive-aggressive non-vote will probably push Romney ahead to a 55:45 victory.
BTW, I spend a lot of time in Virginia, and other than Richmond, the same phenomenon is evident as in NC.
“I seriously doubt many blacks will vote for Romney — maybe 2-3%, but the passive-aggressive non-vote will probably push Romney ahead to a 55:45 victory.”
I am seeing very diminished enthusiasm in Mississippi as well, for similar reasons as you cite for NC, and the slow rotting economy.
PA has also recently elected a Republican governor and senator. And that was before voter ID.
Don’t forget Obama has now shut down all the coal-fired power plant that are causing utility bills to go sky high. That will help Romney wit women and people being laid off due to the EPA.
While it’s not my opinion PA will go R/R what could be a factor is the problem of Harrisburg’s deep financial insolvency. It has been very public. IIRC the city is set to go belly up in October.
OTOH there was not one yard (that I saw) with an empty chair protest on Labor Day where I live in a S/W Pittsburgh suburb.
The younger folk are more open to go republican than their elders. Actually most of the ones I know are dedcated libertarian.
Demography is destiny. NV has undergone a huge demographic change in just the last few decades.
In 1990 the NV Hispanic population was 10.3%; in 2000 it was 15.7%, and in 2010 it was 27.1%. CO will also turn purple and then blue for the same reason.
In NV 19.3% are foreign born and 28.2% speak a language other than English at home (ages 5 and up.)
President Bush got 48.4% in PA in 2004, so it almost went Republican that year. It is definitely in play this year.
The demography of NC has more to do with its gradual shift to purple than all those Northeast libs moving there. Blacks make up 22% of the population and the Hispanic population is 8.6%. NC has one of the fastest growing Hispanic populations in the country. That said, NC barely went for Obama last time and I seriously doubt he will win this time.
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