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I have a son who is running the ground game for the Perkins campaign in the 11th district. He is seeking to oust Gerry Connelly the liberal Democrat. When the Va legislature redistricted the state the 11th was gerrymandered to give the Dems a 6% advantage over Repub voters. Perkins is a retired army Colonel and Green Beret. He is running because of his concern over what Obama is doing to our country. The GOP is not funding his campaign because they see it as a waste of funds. Having said this it is my opinion that he will win. In the 11th there are over 200k government workers and employees of defense contractors. Due to sequestering of funds lay off notices will be in the hands of at least of the government workers who live on the district a week or two before the election. When it sinks in that Obama is threatening their livelihoods I am willing to bet that most of these workers cast a vote for Perkins, Allen and Romney. I am willing to bet that Romney wins the state by a 10% margin. Furthermore comments about Prince William County going Democrat or liberal are way off base regardless of what Obama did in 2008. This county has the largest number of registered Republicans in the state. Turn out the Republicans and the state goes to Allen and Romney. I am politically active in the party and a delegate to the county, district and state conventions and the Republicans in and the county and state are fired up. Virginia will go Republican in a major way in November.

You have some decent points. However the influx of young unmarried women into the area is a wild card even for Fairfax (although more so for Arlington county). They are overwhelmingly Obama voters and we just have to hope they will stay home. PW county is a mixed bag, heavily illegal and has lots of politically split households like Fairfax. Your PW anecdote " This county has the largest number of registered Republicans in the state." is silly, obviously the proportion is what counts, not the number.

There is no way the state goes 10% for Romney. The MSM has a lock on Northern Virginia media. The largest radio station is 99% liberal and uses Politico for most of their in depth analysis. Fairfax and the other surrounding suburbs have had a mixed influx, not just the young and stupid women, but older stupid men and women as well as smarter ones.

The best that can be said for Fairfax is that there are a lot "Reagan Democrats" (or similar philosophy if they are younger). That means they are liberals who went for Reagan (or would go) and would reject Obama who like Carter is an utter failure. The question is whether they will see that in time or not. Many of them voted for Obama.