Perhaps I am in the minority here (although I doubt it), but let's just say in the grand scheme of things, away from this website, "you guys" are a small percentage of "us".
In response to your meat:
A) Conventions do not give 15% bumps ( 3-4 5-ish?) and Independents are what we care about - no one else matters; with that you must agree.
B) Given A, then: Obama needs all the votes he can get
C) Not all the "takers" from last time are going to vote this time. Many are long gone from their 2008 residences and are too freaking lazy to register again.
We ARE???
Wow. This poll is all bunkum, then.
Well, no, maybe you are right. Maybe 40% of Americans who call themselves conservative, maybe that IS a small percentage of "you guys".
I might add this final point: Lulz.
And I mean it.