[donozark]

Talent raised/spent $23.7 million in 2006

Ma McCaskill raised/spent $11.4 million in 2006

Source:Open Secrets

So yes, Talent had about twice as much. McCaskill won by approx.48K votes. Not an insurmountable advantage this time around. And Democrats were energized in '06. "Bush! Cheney! Haliburton!" IEDs. Third Fallujah. This year I just do not see Obama's base energized (yet). And if his base doesn't show up to vote for him, they won't be voting for McCaskill.

[so_real]

This year I just do not see Obama's base energized (yet). And if his base doesn't show up to vote for him, they won't be voting for McCaskill.

That's very valid point and one that must be taken into consideration when handicapping this race. I think the 2006 numbers (pre-Obama base energy in 2008) are a good base line for what to expect in Missouri in 2012 for the Democrats. It might be slightly depressed by disaffected Obama voters that stay home instead of crossing over to vote for Romney. The conservative grass roots, however, are very motivated -- more so down ticket than for the presidential election. I trust these people will show up at the polls and pull the lever for Akin.