>>I have been really surprised at how quickly a large number of FReepers turned on Akin...<<
I’m not. He certainly screwed up, and it was natural to hope that the campaign to replace him would work, especially when a lot of us wanted one of the other two candidates to win the primary in the first place.
However, if anyone believes that Akin is really down 10 points to McCaskill, I’ve got the proverbial bridge to sell them. His numbers held with Independents. It was the Republicans in the poll that deserted him. By the next poll, that will have been proven to be temporary, just part of the intense campaign to get him off the ballot.
To imagine that GOP voters are going to desert Akin for McCaskill is pure fantasy, and the likelihood of a write-in candidate emerging is very, very low, so Akin will get back 95-99% of those who deserted him in that one “heat-of-the-moment” poll.
“However, if anyone believes that Akin is really down 10 points to McCaskill, I’ve got the proverbial bridge to sell them. His numbers held with Independents.”
NOPE. WRONG. THEY DIDNT. And yes Akin is really down 8-10 points.
Mason-Dixon poll is now the SECOND poll after Ras to show Akin down by 9 points. In it, MCCASKILL LEADS AKIN 53-35 AMONG INDEPENDENTS. And leads by 20 points among women:
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/25/mason-dixon-mo-poll-romney-up-5043-over-obama/
Oh and there is more:
MORE MISSOURI REPUBLICANS WANT AKIN TO WITHDRAW THAN TO STAY. This whole ‘will of the voter’ thing is being completely and conveniently ignored by Akin as he decides that his 3-way tiny plurality vitory means more than the desire of the majority of Mo Republicans since his gaffe.
“As far as the US Senate race, it’s amazing that Akin’s still within nine points — a testament to the weakness of McCaskill. On the question of whether Akin should withdraw, a slim plurality of McCaskill voters say he shouldn’t (44/40) … but a majority of Akin’s self-described voters think he should, 50/34. Independents think he should withdraw by thirty-two points, 57/25, but 35% of them will still vote for Akin. His favorables are at -39, 17/56, and yet he’s still getting 41% of the vote. Like I said … amazing.”
I am amazed by those who blithely claim that Akin is electable. He is down by 10 points against a candidate - McCaskill - who is as popular as headlice, but now is in a grand position to beat Akin by double digits. This will be a true “lesser of two evil” vote for a lot of voters and it will be a crying shame if Republicans cant put a winning candidate out there, because Akin will surely lose.
“To imagine that GOP voters are going to desert Akin for McCaskill is pure fantasy, “
I agree - but Akin is down 20 points with indies and women, and he’s not running a campaign that will get them back ===> He’s toast.