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To: smoothsailing

It’s not ignorance. Dick Morris always says if an incumbent isn’t above 50%, the undecided rarely breaks for them. So he is simply following the Dick Morris rule that says he’s likely to pick up the undecided vote by the time election day rolls around.

This controversy and huge media focus obviously has him pushed down as far as he could possibly go. He’s got nowhere to go but up from here.


7 posted on 08/23/2012 3:34:42 PM PDT by JediJones (Too Hot for GOP TV: Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Allen West and Donald Trump)
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To: JediJones

The incumbent-not-reaching-50% rule only works when the challenger is close behind, say within 5% of the incumbent. The mechanism behind it is the undecided break to the challenger say, by 75-25. If the current numbers hold, it’s not enough to put Akin at top. Will things change if donors return to him? Maybe, but his comments—no doubt from being hurt by them abandoning him—tend to burn the bridges.


88 posted on 08/23/2012 6:07:22 PM PDT by paudio (Akin shares one thing with Obama: Republicans of various stripes are against them)
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To: JediJones

Why should anyone listen to Mr. “Condi vs. Hillary” Morris?


98 posted on 08/23/2012 8:34:55 PM PDT by Dan Nunn (Support the NRA!)
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