[Wyatt's Torch]

Yawn. Initial claims have been ranging from 360K to 390K for the last few months after dropping below 400K in October 2011. As a point of reference, the average weekly initial claims since 1967 is 363K.

[fhayek]

I have been wondering what the barometer we should be using, and I appreciate you average figure of 363K since 1967. I assume you are correct. My point would be this, 363K is the average across all kinds of economies, that is both booms and recessions. If, after three years of first time claims being 363K and above, it certainly does not portend a vibrant economy. That is, if we were in a solid recovery, wouldn't we expect first time claims to be significantly below 363K for an extended period of time? We can barely get the first time claims to get to the 45 year average line. Not exactly a stellar performance. We have been bleeding jobs for so long, we just may be running out of jobs to lose. If they want to crow about an improving economy, you need to get significantly below the average line for a significant length of time. At least in my humble opinion.