It’s going to stay close too.
45% don’t pay taxes, Blacks ,queers,Hispanics , and women voting for the man who buys their vote by borrowing money, to keep them bought. They aren’t goging to vote to stop the freebies.
The Romney votes will come from those of us who are paying the bills. These people voting for the freebies do not realise we are reaching the tipping point.Or they don’t care.
Just more shake-n-bake bullcrap. I have typed what I consider to be the real methodology so many times I am going to type a ready made explanation of these public polls paid for by someone else with an agenda so all can see just how easily this crap goes on for news and not real public opinion.
This is right off their site;
The AP-GfK Poll is based on a nationally representative RDD sample of at least 1,000 adults, ages 18 and older, living in the 50 states. The landline RDD sample of households called is stratified, or divided, by census region with targets set for the number of complete calls per region. Cell numbers are not geographically stratified, other
than in selecting the initial sample.
It isnt going to be close.
But how else will a polling outfit make $$$$ if they dont keep the drama high?
They have to be right in late October when they have a reputation to maintain.
47% Dem
41% Rep
Despite the AP’s attempt to paint this as good news for Obama, the trend is our friend. First of all, this is a survey of registered voters, not likely voters. The former always skews in democrats’ favor, while the latter more accurately predicts real voting patterns. And, second of all, Obama has not managed to capture any more than the 47% he had two months ago, while Romney moved up from 44% to 46%. So Romney gained 2% in two months, while Obama was stagnant. Extending the trend line to election day would leave Obama mired at 47% while Romney passes him.
The total of 93% leaves 7% for Undecided or Other. After nearly 4 years, everybody knows what Obama is like. He’s not going to capture much of the remainder.
Of course, the overall percentage is merely a sentiment indicator, and not a predictor of who will win the Electoral College, the only vote that matters. Obama could (and probably will) win liberal enclaves like California, New York, and Massachusetts by very large margins. But it doesn’t matter how much he wins those states by. You get the same number of their Electoral College votes whether you win by one vote or one million. He could win big in those states and lose small in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and other swing states, maybe even winning the popular vote while losing the election. God willing.
D31, R23, I30
D Strong 15, D Moderate 16
R Strong 9, R Moderate 14
typical lefty bias
When leaners are not forced to pick either Dem or Rep the totals are:
Dem: 31
Rep: 23
Ind: 30
There's either a major disconnect between dissatisfaction and voting or between the Gallup poll and the AP-GfK poll (or both).
http://nation.foxnews.com/2012-polls/2012/08/21/obama-slaughtered-latest-gallup-poll
Two words: registered voters.
Associated Propoganda continues to use registered voters rather than likely voters, thus intentionally factoring out voter enthusiasm and intensity (one of the reasons they didn’t see the 2010 results coming).
Of course, the Dims will have to get their “registered voters” to the polls during a smaller window than Republicans since so many Dims don’t get up before noon, then have to make a run to the convenience store for beer, cigs, and lottery tickets, and then a little afternoon partying. That’s always why the Dims try to keep the polls open after closing time (which also allows the dead voters to appear).
Registered voters, too — not likely voters.