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To: muawiyah
+13 Dems in a 2008 voter sample--a HIGHLY elevated "Dem" affiliated turnou---when even that showed only a 6% Dem advantage in affiliation is indeed over sampling and truly grossly distorted.

Between the new Ras polls in MI and WI, even if this poll is off a little, it points to a Romney landslide. You can ignore or try to explain away reality, but the way things now stand, Romney is well up in all the key states.

66 posted on 08/22/2012 4:04:03 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS
Not really ~ I lie to the Obama pollsters. Don't you, or didn't you get tagged for surveys?

Well, anyway, I will take off on election day and go in and vote for some, against others, and certainly against any tax increases, bond sales or changes to the state constitution.

If a pollster were to ask if I preferred Rombama over Oromney, and I failed to respond, I'd be marked as a non-respondent. You'd actually have to ask me who I was voting for ~ not who I preferred ~ 'cause, as everyone on FR knows, I prefer NEITHER. Doesn't mean I won't be voting.

This happens to a lot of folks BTW, but they go ahead and vote just down ticket, or even at the top of the list, but the responses to the pollster's questions may or may not reflect what someone is going to do. Most pollsters discard these non-response responses since nobody cares ~

I saw an earlier post where some Freeper thinks that folks who don't say they are Republicans or Democrats must be Moderates. What utter nonsense. That's where you get your wild men and women who drop off the charts! Then, there are others who think those folks are Independents, and that's equally preposterous. They just don't want to be on the mailing lists.

Again, pay attention to the trends ~ not the absolute numbers. The trends even give you an idea of what the nonresponsive nonrespondents are thinking ~ 'cause they're still human even if they don't answer polls.

(Note ~ for a long time I used monthly postal mail volume statistics to tell me whether to invest in more stock or go cash. Worked great. Actually, that curve duplicated the old Lynch Curve. It was good for a couple of months in advance of the market too.)

71 posted on 08/22/2012 5:28:52 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: LS

That Romney is comfortably ahead in FL (and other key states, for that matter) would not surprise me. If he weren’t, I believe he would have tapped Rubio for VP with the hope of boosting Hispanic turnout and votes. Also, he would not have touched the third column of Medicare and SS with a ten foot pole.


88 posted on 08/22/2012 8:43:56 AM PDT by randita (Paul Ryan is "Mr. Smith goes to Washington.")
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