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Much as I agree with your characterization of the NRSC, no, he cannot win without them. He would have to self-fund his campaign, or draw upon a groundswell of support that I can't envision materializing. The conservative PACs have already withdrawn their support, and Rat money and Rat PACs will inundate the state.
Akin is a lost cause and needs to quit. Conservative resources are best directed elsewhere, as he has already lost his Senate seat--and I don't want him to drag down conservative candidates elsewhere.
McCaskill and the DSCC were terrified that the GOP would easily replace this guy due to his timely withdrawal - in fact, they were furious that his gaffe leaked prematurely. Instead, this selfish SOB has them uncorking champagne bottles in DC.