I think Ann Wagner would have a better chance of beating McCaskill. If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on Wagner being the replacement.
Would happily approve of Wagner. Plus that district is pretty GOP-favorable so an alternate candidate could be found, heck maybe Akin himself for his old seat although I’d prefer he stay off any ballot this year.
There are two potential problems with picking Wagner: (i) she will be seen by some as “too establishment” (not a problem for a GOP-leaning CD in the St. Louis suburbs, but might be a problem statewide in 2012) and (ii) if you pick her, you need to find someone else to run in MO-02, which currently is considered a slam-dunk for the GOP largely due to her huge fundraising advantage over the hapless Democrat candidate but could be competitive if she is replaced on the ballot and the Dems then get their sacrificial lamb replaced (surely they can get a judge to sign off on it)with Russ Carnahan or something.
I think they’ll avoid picking Brunner or Steelman, nor will they pick one of the current House candidates (Emerson would be bad not only because it would turn the MO-08 competitive, but because she’s quite RINOish). Talent would be my preferred candidate, but he has said he isn’t interested—not sure whether his protestations are real or if he’s just pretending. I’m thinking it will be Schweich. But if Bond is interested they might pick him as a way of removing all doubt over who will win (and providing an olive branch to the other candidates, who know that Bond wouldn’t run for reelection in 2018).