I too am certain that a third party candidate will not win. The question is how much will one candidate or the other be hurt by them. The Libertarians and Goode supporters will probably draw from the Republican side. The Greens will tend to be from the Democrats. Not sure what the trend would be for Rohmer. There is a party, I think called Peace and Freedom in California which would probably draw from the Democrats. I’m not sure what else is out there. Given the growth of green parties in Europe, I wonder about the future of the Green Party in the US.
I want to be careful about what I post, because the toplines are by subscription and I don't want to violate any copywrite or ownership laws. So far, I've only been using the content on the free side of Rasmussen's site.
I'm going to try to create some composite measures that don't expose Rasmussen's pay-data, if possible.
-PJ