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To: ravager
Suppose, for example, that a botched coup leads to civil disorder in Pakistan. Who is better prepared to use persuasion and force to assure that several Pakistani nukes do not get into the hands of Islamic terrorists intending to use them on India? India, or the US?

Whatever India's military capabilities may be for such a crisis, as the Bin Laden raid demonstrates, those of the US are far more substantial than those of India. In fact, India does not even have the Chinook and Apache helicopters used on that raid or any equivalents, let alone the ancillary equipment and men trained and ready for deep incursions into hostile territory.

By spending a lot of money in opaque ways, after ten or twenty years, India might develop and produce the needed military equipment through indigenous manufacturing -- assuming that is, the Americans or Europeans or Israelis can be persuaded to provide the technology.

As best as I can tell, India's strategy for dealing with a major crisis with Pakistan is to engage US mediation by threatening war, a war that would almost certainly soon become a nuclear war. Except for US intervention, that very nearly happened after the Mumbai attacks.

Call me an opinionated American if you will, but India being strong enough to avert a nuclear war with Pakistan seems to be in India's interest. Among other things, that requires that India have a robust ability to monitor and defend her borders and lands against Pakistani terrorism -- and that India have the ability to do this as soon as possible, not on the vague, extended time frames used in India's arms indigenization program.

Logically, that means India needs to purchase military equipment from foreign suppliers and get it into the hands of her armed forces on an expedited basis. If not, in the event of an emergency, I am sure that India's Foreign Ministry knows how to reach the US State Department. For the sake of Mumbai, the rest of India, and the world, I hope that the US and India and their relationship -- more than friends, less than allies -- are able to bring any such crisis to a successful resolution.

24 posted on 08/23/2012 8:52:13 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: Rockingham
If Pakistan goes out of control right now, US military would be the first target not India. You would be more worried about your own supply lines and safety of your men who would be stranded in Afghanistan, then worry about India-Pak squabble. You would be more in need of Indian help then India in need of yours. Ironically India-Pak stuff has actually cooled off at the moment because of US-Pak drama right now.

And if you know anything about Indian foreign policy, India vehemently opposes any third party mediation, especially US mediation.......(all said and done there are still some trust issues). India goes to Washington only to tell US to muzzle up her dog that's all.

American options currently with Pakistan are already very limited and if Pakistan goes out of control then you actually have none despite all your political and military resources. You would have to simply work out a strategy with India. Bush government recognized this problem early on and hence decide to get closer with India.

As for the Bin Laden raid, I highly doubt US pulled it off with just Chinooks and Apaches. Somewhere somehow Pakistan Army was part of this. Even though most of Pakistan's air defense is concentrated on the eastern side it would still not have been a cake walk for Apaches to fly in unopposed. And lucky for the US, it is geographically isolated from any threat of retaliation from Pakistan. Its not something India can enjoy even with substantial military capability.

Secondly India has over 600 military helicopters (including Mi-17V,Mi26, Mi35 and Hal Dhruvs). NONE of US allies have that many. The RAF may have a few Chinooks but still nothing on India. A few Chinooks and Apaches that India may buy will help replace India's aging fleet but wont add anything substantial to change the paradigm of Indian military doctrine/tactics against Pakistan.

As for a broader counter insurgency role, I think India has actually gained more experience and fared better then US. In Kashmir where India for decades faced the same enemy Russians faced in the past and Americans are facing at present, terrorist insurgency has been reduced to near zero. There isn't an inch of Indian territory that India has lost control to Mujaheddin. Cannot say the same about US in Afghanistan despite all the military assets at your disposal.

25 posted on 08/23/2012 12:08:19 PM PDT by ravager
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To: Rockingham
If Pakistan goes out of control right now, US military would be the first target not India. You would be more worried about your own supply lines and safety of your men who would be stranded in Afghanistan, then worry about India-Pak squabble. You would be more in need of Indian help then India in need of yours. Ironically India-Pak stuff has actually cooled off at the moment because of US-Pak drama right now.

And if you know anything about Indian foreign policy, India vehemently opposes any third party mediation, especially US mediation.......(all said and done there are still some trust issues). India goes to Washington only to tell US to muzzle up her dog that's all.

American options currently with Pakistan are already very limited and if Pakistan goes out of control then you actually have none despite all your political and military resources. You would have to simply work out a strategy with India. Bush government recognized this problem early on and hence decide to get closer with India.

As for the Bin Laden raid, I highly doubt US pulled it off with just Chinooks and Apaches. Somewhere somehow Pakistan Army was part of this. Even though most of Pakistan's air defense is concentrated on the eastern side it would still not have been a cake walk for Apaches to fly in unopposed. And lucky for the US, it is geographically isolated from any threat of retaliation from Pakistan. Its not something India can enjoy even with substantial military capability.

Secondly India has over 600 military helicopters (including Mi-17V,Mi26, Mi35 and Hal Dhruvs). NONE of US allies have that many. The RAF may have a few Chinooks but still nothing on India. A few Chinooks and Apaches that India may buy will help replace India's aging fleet but wont add anything substantial to change the paradigm of Indian military doctrine/tactics against Pakistan.

As for a broader counter insurgency role, I think India has actually gained more experience and fared better then US. In Kashmir where India for decades faced the same enemy Russians faced in the past and Americans are facing at present, terrorist insurgency has been reduced to near zero. There isn't an inch of Indian territory that India has lost control to Mujaheddin. Cannot say the same about US in Afghanistan despite all the military assets at your disposal.

26 posted on 08/23/2012 12:08:34 PM PDT by ravager
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To: Rockingham
And India has plenty of options against Pakistan that can be exercised without the threat of crossing nuclear threshold. During Kargill war, Indian navy blockaded Karachi harbor nearly cutting off their economic lifeline. And it was Pakistan that ran to Washington for US involvement, not India. India is building damns across all the rivers that go into Pakistan, so that water can be diverted to add yet another level to escalation. And India has also been carrying out covert low intensity war by proxy for decades inside Pakistan (Pakistan has nearly lost control of Baluchistan). This happens under the media radar but its no secret for Washington and Islamabad.

Currently as far as conventional and nuclear superiority over Pakistan goes, India is far ahead of Pakistan then any time in her history. The drive for military indegenisation & modernization has little to do with Pakistan and more to do with India's bigger adversary China. You cannot fight China with a few fancy weapons brought from US. You need a robust military industrial complex to take on China. Regardless of how long it takes, it is a strategic and economic necessity. Question is, how is the US going to accommodate itself towards this strategic goal? Is the US willing to be an equal partner in military and technological cooperation with India or is it going to treat India as just another client state like Saudi Arabia? That is a question US will have to answer for herself. India will be going ahead with her strategic objectives one way or another. And where possible India will be expediting weapon procurement policies from whatever sources available to fill in immediate gaps but with indeginisation (alongside foreign JVs) still being the ultimate goal.

Besides you don't seriously think India would be so naive to put all her eggs in American basket and pray that US picks India's side and not pull the plug during a conflict with Pakistan? It has happened before. And Pakistan is still America's ally.

27 posted on 08/23/2012 12:17:12 PM PDT by ravager
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To: Rockingham
US power is currently diminishing in Asia. Let for the moment assume that US has only good intentions for India. Even then there is a limit to what US military can do. The best weapons brought from US will not help win you a war otherwise Pakistan would have won in 65 and 71 not India. Weapons brought from a foreign sources will only keep you at the mercy of that source. It will not help you become an independent global power. The road to indegenisation is long and arduous but you have to start somewhere. India cannot become a superpower by just buying off the shelf weapons from outside.
28 posted on 08/23/2012 12:31:11 PM PDT by ravager
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