How Radio Will Kill the Radio Star (hosts, listeners age, AM dying)

Hollywood Reporter ^ | 8/16/12 | Shirley Halperin

[raccoonradio]

With a third of talk radio's audience now over 65, on-air talent is aging apace -- leaving the future of a stagnant, debt-saddled industry in question.

There's no room on the radio for a new Howard Stern today," says Tom Leykis. The firebrand talk show host is among the few former FM personalities who could command a Stern-like contract, thanks to stellar ratings in 25 markets over 12 years. But after CBS Radio pulled the plug on his show in 2009 (paying out his $20 million-plus contract), the popular host didn't jump to a terrestrial station or to satellite, opting instead to create his own Internet radio network symbolically dubbed "The New Normal." With four fully-licensed music stations streaming some 50,000 songs along with his own daily call-in show, 400,000 tuned in during launch week in April and 1.7 million in its first month -- "more than the cumulative audiences of 14 Los Angeles radio stations," Leykis boasts. With a $1 million investment of his own money, he expects to be profitable by the end of the year.

Leykis, 56, says he left his first love not because he couldn't get paid, but because he believes traditional radio is dying. Thanks to iPods, podcasts and hundreds of satellite stations, radio audiences are getting older (more than a third of talk-radio listeners are 65 and older) and the personalities are aging out of relevance. "KABC's new show is hosted by Geraldo Rivera, who's 68, John and Ken came on KFI in 1992, Bill Handel in 1988, Rush Limbaugh in 1989," notes Leykis of the L.A. market's top English-language stars. The spring chicken, he says with a laugh, is 48-year-old Tim Conway Jr. At 37, KIIS star Ryan Seacrest is actually younger, but it is telling that L.A.'s youth-targeted alt-rock outlet KROQ has had the same morning hosts, Kevin and Bean, for more than 20 years. Pop station KAMP's Carson Daly, 39, first appeared on KROQ in the mid-1990s.

More frightening for lovers of traditional, ad-supported radio: There don't appear to be too many future Seacrests primed to take over (the American Idol host got his start as an intern at Atlanta's WSTR), partly due to diminishing pay but also because people aren't listening. As many as 40 percent of Americans consume audio on digital devices, according to the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism, and that number is expected to double by 2015. "Each successive generation is turning away from radio," says Michael Harrison, publisher of radio trades Talkers and Radio-Info.com. "That’s not necessarily terrible. The upper demos today are wealthy, involved and active and have a lot of years ahead of them. The same is true of older DJs and talk show hosts -- they’re not over the hill; with age comes better talent and wisdom. But looking down the road 15 years, it’s problematic.”

More pressing is the reality for congloms such as Sirius XM and Clear Channel, which are saddled with debt that came post-consolidation and prerecession. In Clear Channel's case, its 2008 sale to Bain Capital and Thomas H. Lee Partners has left the radio group, which owns 850 stations and has the largest reach in the country, $20 billion in the red, with massive payments due in 2014 and 2016. "A lot of radio can't afford to be radio," says Harrison. "They're winging it. High-paid personalities, news departments … When the ownership has to concentrate on cutting costs, alleviating debt and not taking on expenses, it's difficult to put attention into creating a product."

Leykis agrees: "Radio stations are like many of the homeowners in Corona -- they bought a $799,000 dollar house that’s now worth $496,000,” he says, referencing the foreclosure-ridden L.A. suburb. "Why spend $100 million to buy a frequency when most people, even those over 40, are getting content on their iPhones? It’s hard to make those payments, just like it is for the homeowner. You have to find another way to get your curated content out."

For the most part, the belt-tightening has only served to stem the bleeding, not increase profits -- although radio revenues grew by 1 percent to $17.4 billion in 2011, according to the Radio Advertising Bureau, that's a fraction of the medium's 6 percent growth in 2010.

It's a grim outlook that radio industry observers long have dreaded, where centralized programming rules (Seacrest is currently heard on 177 stations worldwide), program directors oversee a half-dozen stations and local jocks are rarely present. Leykis predicts many AM stations will simply cease to exist in the coming years. Instead, the frequency will be used for "WiFi, cell phone service, opening and closing garage doors, police, fire or aviation channels …" And he doesn't bemoan that future. "It would be a better use for the frequency." That leaves one wondering: Will anybody object?

TOP 5 RADIO PERSONALITIES

Terrestrial radio's most popular talk show hosts are also among the oldest. Rush Limbaugh, 61: The Rush Limbaugh Show (Premiere Networks) -- 15 million listeners per week Sean Hannity, 50: The Sean Hannity Show (Premiere Networks) -- 14 million listeners per week Michael Savage, 70: The Savage Nation (Talk Radio Network) -- 9 million listeners per week Laura Ingraham, 48: The Laura Ingraham Show (Talk Radio Network) -- 6 million listeners per week Ed Schultz, 58: The Ed Schultz Show (Dial Global) -- 3 million listeners per week

[Crimson Elephant]

Podcasting is replacing the AM for younger people. Also podcasting is slicing things up into smaller and more targeted areas of interest, rather than “general” talk shows.

There are whole podcasting networks devoted to just Technology or even mostly just APPLE tech. ESPNradio is jumping whole hog into podcasting.

What form it will finally take will be interesting, but the “airwaves” of TV and Radio will probably eventually be used for something else.

[albie]

I was an am talk show host until 2003. Local station in Richmond VA. They cut my pay. Fired me and have since hired 4 different hosts in the same pm drive spot in the last 9 years. Average salary 40K. Hard to survive making that.

[chrisser]

My personal take...

AM radio (and to a large extent, broadcast TV) is partially dying because it’s gone from ad-supported to ad-saturated. Combine that with awful content in all but a few cases (like Rush), and it’s just not worth listening to or watching anymore.

I have about an hour for lunch. If I turn on Rush, I get maybe 15 minutes of him. The rest is ads and “news” broadcasts that are usually poor rehashings of what I read on FR two days before. I like Rush, but I can listen to an hour of music of my choice with no ads from a variety of sources (mp3, CD, etc.) vs 15 minutes of him in 2 or 3 minute snippets.

Broadcast TV is even worse. I try to watch the local news - primarily to get the weather forecast. But it’s no longer worth spending 1/2 an hour, most of it filled with ads and fluff in order to get the 30 second forecast. I can go online, get it, and get on with my evening.

It seems radio (and broadcast TV) exist to show ads. That makes some sense, as that’s where the revenue comes from, but consumers don’t tune in for the ad, they tune in for the content, largely in spite of the ads. If you don’t have content, or you have too little content, you don’t get the ad exposure nor it’s revenue. People have choices.

It seems simple to me, but very few in broadcasting seem to get it.

Once a consumer stops listening or watching and finds other things to do in a given slot, it’s unlikely they’re going to come back.

[KarlInOhio]

Leykis predicts many AM stations will simply cease to exist in the coming years. Instead, the frequency will be used for "WiFi, cell phone service, opening and closing garage doors, police, fire or aviation channels …" And he doesn't bemoan that future. "It would be a better use for the frequency."

So will everything from 1200 kHz to 1700 kHz be depopulated and forced to move to empty slots in 530-1190 kHz? That will free up a half megahertz, or a little more than two FM radio station slots or one twelfth of an analog TV channel.

[raccoonradio]

I don’t know but maybe AM will still exist for pirate stations, or “local community stations” (kind of like local access on cable) or religious, children’s etc. Who knows. But yes very free space will be created if, say, half of the medium wave (AM) band were to be turned over.

[Chuzzlewit]

this may be true..

I would go the podcasting route if it were a tad bit easier. I used to get Adam Corolla via podcast and I just find it too much of a hassle. It could be I just don’t have it set up correctly on my iPHONE.

[gnarledmaw]

This article misses the point really. This isnt due to aging listeners. All radio such as we know it will soon be a thing of the past. AM is just the first place that its obvious.

Advances in technology coupled with the record industry's loss of control in forcing music trends due to the internet will soon shut down radio as we know it.

This article is akin to someone sitting in a Model A, concerned over the loss of the last baleen buggy whip manufacturer while beliving that the synthetic buggy whip factories will continue to remain relevant forever.

[relictele]

It’s difficult to have sympathy for so-called experts and professionals who administered hemlock to their colleagues, employers and businesses for so many years:

1) Consultants (see also: candidates for political office)
2) Ultrarigid formatting
3) Computerization to achieve #2
4) Smaller and smaller and smaller playlists
5) Payola in all its forms
6) Commercial load
7) Commercials masquerading as weather & traffic reports

Like the landline telephone, abuse of the system in pursuit of the last nickel has seen the user base abandon the technology.

[Wuli]

Through technology, the “broadcast airwaves” could be given a “second life”.

[raccoonradio]

Exactly, ad saturated. Friend of mine said he likes Coast to Coast but they go to an ad break at bottom of the hour and it takes forever to get back to the progam. I know they gotta make money but really.

And for all these slots often they can’t get filled so you get public service announcements instead.

Agreed about how you can get weather, etc. from other sources.

In the old days the local TV news had a long sports segment but now they have a short one and if you want the scores,
look quick, they’re scrolling at bottom of screen. But then again there are a multitude of all sports networks, or online sources of them (ESPN.com), too.

[Arm_Bears]

The only talk-radio I listen to is Rush, and he’s getting to be tedious what with continually telling me stuff I already know.

[raccoonradio]

Exactly. In Boston Clear Channel bought WFNX FM 101.7 a longrunning alternative rock station. Yes, moonbat radio but it could have interesting music, local band interviews etc.

CC gets it and redubs it the Harbor, rock with a tight playlist and no DJs. As I said on radio messageboards it's boring, it's predictable, and it will make them money. They found a computer that can spit out money.

On the AM side they had Talk 1200: 2 local hosts plus Rush, Hannity, etc. Now they lay off the local hosts, move Rush to a more powerful station, etc, and put on all comedy bits. No employees (other than some bits from an employee at one of their FMs), no vacation time, no labor costs, just load the computer.

This WAS conservative talk till this past Monday

(meanwhile WFNX has been replaced by the jockless wfnx.com, jockless for now at least, and the Boston Globe launched RadioBostonDotCom with 4 of the old WFNX jocks)

[andy58-in-nh]

For those who listen to AM talk radio for any length of time during the day: have you noticed recently the immense percentage of advertisements that are now sponsored by a government or quasi-government agency?

It seems that one hears a light sprinkling of local retail ads sandwiched in between wall-to-wall public service advertisements from the Department of Labor, Justice, Health and Human Services, the Ad Council, etc.

[EGPWS]

Radio has seen it's downfall since the end of

Chickenman

[Tex-Con-Man]

The guy to watch is Glenn Beck.

He isn't afraid to work without a net. When it comes to redefining the model while exploring new technology and delivery systems, the man will jump in with both feet. He's a true pioneer...and always seems to make money doing it.

[newzjunkey]

Ad saturation is a problem, sure, but for fans of the medium lack of local talk and programming is a bigger problem.

These days many stations are pushing "I Heart Radio" for computer & phone listening but I find it won't stay connected over wifi on a high speed cable connection. I don't know imagine it could be any better over a cell connection.

[relictele]

They’d have a damn hard time remaking ‘American Graffiti’ in 2012. Would Curt go to the radio station and sneak a look at the computer doing its airshift? Would the computer offer him a melting Popsicle? Would the kids be able to communicate face-to-face, one-on-one without a smartphone in hand? Would the vandalism of a police cruiser bring shocked looks from the cops or a SWAT team armed to the teeth? Would Toad & Candy have a musical backdrop for their backseat antics or would they be interrupted by compressed, overloud JOHN SMITH NISSAN & HONDA’S SATURDAY SUPERSALE commercials?

[Fiji Hill]

There will still be a market for AM radio among motorists until someone comes up with a car radio that can pick up Internet broadcasts.

[relictele]

Candy = > Debbie (Candy was the actress)

[vis a vis]

I have noticed it also. Who is the Ad Council anyway?(gov’t agency?).

The spots are like listening to your mother giving you advice all day long. Most of the items they play are just common sense.

I find it very annoying.