I think so much of Obamas rise to the White House rode on the novelty of him being black. Given this, I dont think he stands a chance of ever being re-elected if he loses this one.
We still may see a black Republican Conservative if only because the blacks would want a chance to prove one of their own can get it right.
Yes, I really believe if a black Rep was on the ticket for president he would get a majority of the black vote.