I really would like to believe NJ is in play, but we’ve heard that in 2000 and 2004. I do think that other potential teasers MI and WI really are in play this time around.
Chris Christie is a TEA Party governor, and he’d defeat any challenger at this point. A lot has changed since 2000 and 2004; NJ, MA, and VA all elected Republicans for statewide office 1 year after Obama carried them in 2008.
I can’t believe Obama won’t have to campaign to win Illinois; people are desperate. They were desperate enough to vote for him, and things have only gotten worse; the dynamic that got him in will get him out.