Some Interesting Facts About Wisconsin's First Congressional District (Paul Ryan's home)

Cook Partisan Voting Index / Cook Political Report ^ | 14 August 2012 | My own research

[Vigilanteman]

Some interesting facts about Paul Ryan's congressional district:

1. Only marginally Republican, with a Cook PVI of +2%.
   
2. Mostly Urban, 84% and includes some Milwaukee suburbs.
   
3. Heavilly blue collar, over 27%
   
4. Has voted for the Republican nominee for president in only one election since Ronald Reagan's 1984 blow-out (2004).
   
5. Paul Ryan's lowest vote total ever in his seven elections here was his first, when he won 57% of the vote. Since then, he has never won less than 63%.

[Vigilanteman]

IOW, Paul Ryan's home district likes him far better than their voting profile would otherwise show. He should be barely limping over the finish line in his congressional re-election bids and, instead, he's cruising.

He's not just merely good at selling conservatism, he's great.

[Steely Tom]

He's not just merely good at selling conservatism, he's great.

Guess that's why he's freaking out the liberals.

[TheBigB]

I’m wondering if Mitt and his advisors have done some number-crunching...to the effect of, if Ryan carries his
*own* district by *this* percentage in November, he pulls WI into the RR column.

[Just mythoughts]

Will Representative Ryan still be on the ballot for Congress this election?

[2banana]

I hope so.

After all, Kerry and Obama did not give up their seats during the election process...

Will Representative Ryan still be on the ballot for Congress this election?

[srmorton]

Yes. He said Sunday on 60 Minutes that it is too late to remove his name from the ballot.

[Sequoyah101]

Good planning but somebody will make something out of it.

[Just mythoughts]

I hope so. After all, Kerry and Obama did not give up their seats during the election process...

Well those lords and ladies of the Senate have 6 year terms and the lowly House members are elected every two years. And given that House members are NOT considered 'executive' material, and nationally known, few ever reach the stature of either presidential or veep candidate.

[Just mythoughts]

Thank you for the information.... This I am glad to hear. NOT to say I have any opposition to him being veep, but that in the event Romney cannot win the high minded moderates from Obama, I would like to see Ryan still functioning in the ‘peoples’ House.

[bjorn14]

Yes, he will be on the ballot in WI-1

[Vigilanteman]

Correct. Up until George Bush (2000), it was tradition for anyone who made it to one of the top two slots on the GOP ticket to resign their lower office or, at the very least, decline to run for re-election. Bob Dole did it in 1996. Barry Goldwater did it in 1964.

I am not aware of a single case of a Democrat doing it in the modern era.

Furthermore, Paul Ryan is extremely popular in his home district. His worst showing was his initial election in 1998 (57%). His second worst showing was in the GOP horrible year of 2006 (63%). What's even more amazing is that his dirstict has voted for a GOP presidential candidate only one time since the Reagan blow-out in 1984. And that was in 2004. His presence on the congressional ballot will help the top of the ticket, not the reverse. For example, in 2004 when the Bush-Cheney ticked managed to limp over the finish line with less than 5% to spare, Ryan was trouncing his Democrat opponent by 32.8%. In 2008, when Obama carried the district by 4%, Ryan was clobbering his Democrat opponent by 29.3%.

Assuming he maintains the same popularity in 2012, assuming said popularity carries over to the national ticket, and even assuming said influence does not carry over to any of Wisconsin's other seven congressional districts, he has ability to swing 1/8th x 30% of the state vote or 3.75% total.

Had Wisconsin swung 3.75% toward the GOP, they would have won Wisconsin's electoral votes in exactly three (1988, 2000, 2004) of the last six presidential elections rather than none of them.