Read “Ethnic America” by Thomas Sowell. It explains a lot. I don’t think the Jewish Vote will ever suddenly go Republican. But I think what will happen, and IS happening, is a gradual peeling away of more and more Jewish voters, particularly religious Jews and Orthodox Jews.
Right now, those Jews to whom Jewishness is a cultural heritage rather than a faith based belief, will remain in the Democrat camp.
I don't know if you caught this Sultan Knish article: www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2915503/posts
Abortion as a Liberal Jewish value has been a stunning success. In New York City, where Sanger first set up shop, 74 percent of all Jewish children are members of the traditionalist Orthodox religious group. Liberal Jews are already panicking over the prospect of a future Jewish population in New York City that is staunchly conservative and religious.
A recent survey of New York City Jews also shows a nearly even split between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. 46 percent of New York Jews are planning to vote against Obama, and a majority of New York City Jews think that Romney would be better at fixing the economy than B.O. But it is only to be expected that the group for whom abortion isn't a Jewish value would come to outnumber the group for whom abortion is a Jewish value.
Less-observant Jews who emigrated from Eastern Europe post 1945 and their children also tend to be conservative. Complex groups are complex. As for the rest, unchurched urban voters vote Democrat.