But Romney is NOT the incumbant President. Everyone has an opinion on Obama and well over 50% of the FL electorate has decide they don’t like him as POTUS, so they will either vote for Romney or not vote at all, either way Romney picks up Florida.
By that logic he wins PA and OH (and probably every other state but CA, NY, HI and IL). I’m not complaining. I hope you’re right. But it seems a bit optimistic to me at this point. Is there precedent you could easily cite to back it up?