Silver does a fair analysis.
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Yes he does. There is no doubt that Nate Silver is a highly competent analyst despite his obvious leftist views.
But his analysis still suffers from the garbage-in garbage-out problem. While he accounts for the RV vs LV problem (+2 for Romney with LV polls) it appears that he simply ignores the outrageous over-sampling of Ds that is a “feature” of a majority of the recent polls.
I believe the oversampling is supposedly an estimate of how many more Democrats will actually vote than Republicans.