Demographics... VA is very black and that is the one contingent that will turn out for him in similar numbers to 2008.
VA is not only very black, but also has seen its northern counties of the D.C. area invaded by leftist bureaucrats on the government dole and others who fled the very Blue state of Maryland (ironically because they don’t like how Blue Maryland has become!). The Washington, D.C. metropolitan area has become so dependent on the Federal Government that any significant cuts in the budget will send real estate values plummeting in Montgomery and Fairfax counties. Those residents will not take that possibility lying down. In other words, a Romney win means less money in their pockets. The fact that Obama is narrowly leading in the current VA polls speaks volumes of the effective strategy of government expansion this Administration has employed.
I also think that VA (around the DC area) is full of govt. workers who are doing just great in this recession with Zero in the WH.