You need to go back to Bush for your baseline to get a Republican win.
Now, recompute the whole thing assuming about 4.0 million religious social conservatives simply don't show up to vote for President. That's happened before BTW.
That gives Obama a 6.3 million vote margin.
Romney's odds of winning are far from insurmountable ~ Obama has an excellent chance because the imponderable imponderables ~ to wit ~ people not showing up to vote at all ~ are very much against Romney.
Only a Conservative willing to deal with any and all issues can give Social Conservatives an incentive to show up to vote in this election.
This is simply a bogus argument that reassumed 08 as a “baseline” making the same mistake pollsters did in 1994. And, no, the “swapsies” do NOT give Zero a win because it’s x2 (Zero loses+Romney gains) and the original point of my post was that based on MY experience of speaking in front of “conservatives’ conservatives,” I.e. Tea Parties, there will be an awesome turnout by conservatives on Nov.6-—perhaps everywhere except on FR.