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To: Texas Fossil
Paleotemperature curves show what has happened in each of the preceding interglacial epochs, and we are in one now, which will end in about 800-1800 years (my own correlation).

Generally, each interglacial starts with a bang, with a sharp rise in global annual temperatures, achieving a maximum, or Climatic Optimum, about 1000-3000 years in. The curves are modulated curves, i.e. there are several cyclicities at work, and their influences are additive (positive or negative values), and they are rank-ordered by profundity.

The temperature break at the end of the Pliocene Epoch was the first-order change. The glacials and interglacials are the second order changes. Third-, fourth-, and fifth-order variations turn the interglacial temperature curves into cockscombs which roach, or curve, from the Climatic Optimum (maximal temps) gradually downward toward the end of the interglacial 6000-12,000 years later, ending with a temperature crash and the onset of full-glacial conditions.

The new evidence from tree rings shows that the net background change, i.e. trend, in global temperatures since the time of the Romans has been downward (comprehensively refuting the "Hockey Stick" thesis), in agreement with the major trend in previous interglacials.

Enjoy it while it lasts. By the 38th century, we're history.

One last point: Warmer = wetter, and abundant harvests. Cooler = drier weather, and crop failure. The AGW crowd hasn't figured that out yet, or they'd be building their "We need totalitarian Communism NOW!" message on the Russo-Danish astrophysicists' predictions of low sunspot activity, cooler global temperatures, and all that that entails (as during the Dalton and Maunder lows).

69 posted on 08/05/2012 10:31:23 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: lentulusgracchus
Russo-Danish astrophysicists' predictions of low sunspot activity

In the "long term" we are all dead". Shorter term, we have bottomed and are coming out of the sunspot minimum (very long and quiet one). My take is that it is not about warming or cooling as much as it is about weather variations. Weather is in fact more unpredictable during the transition through minimums and maximums. Weather is very local. Global trends do not mean as much. I know about crop failures. My family has owned/farmed land in this county since 1889. I was the first family member to move away, gone 25 years, back 17 years. Before that our ancestors farmed in TX, AL and GA. Some of my ancestors weathered the terrible TX drought in 1895. It was something like what we had between Oct. 1, 2010 to Oct. 1, 2011. We had 2-3/4" of rain for 12 months and incredibly hot temperatures. That pattern broke in mid October 2011 and we had a pretty normal winter and early spring. From there we are back in a drought pattern. We shall see what the fall and winter bring.

81 posted on 08/05/2012 2:22:50 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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