I think Moody’s needs to be called on their assumptions, it’s more of a self fulfilling prophesy; Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Moody’s Analytics.
September 20, 2010
Economists: Extend Bush tax cuts for everyone
http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/19/news/economy/what_to_do_economists_survey/index.htm
“If those tax cuts expire for everybody, we go into a double-dip recession,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.
Zandi and some of the economists calling for an extension of cuts for the wealthy want to phase out the lower rates for those taxpayers after a couple of years to limit the cost to the Treasury.
Remember Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Moody’s Analytics, is also one of the Democrat’s go-to Economist;
October 22, 2009 Transcript of Pelosi, House Democratic Leaders, and Economists’ Press Conference Following Economic Forum
October 22, 2009
Speaker Pelosi.
Good afternoon. We just had a very instructive meeting with some leading economists about the number one subject on the minds of the American people: jobs. Jobs, jobs, jobs, and jobs. ... They are going to tell you some of their forecasts that they told us about some of the options that we may have in investments in tax policy, in budgetary overdue, on how we can create jobs in the most fiscally sound way. ...I am pleased that we had the benefit of the thinking of Dr. Mark Zandi, Dr. Alan Blinder, Bob Kuttner, Heather Boushey, Bill Hambrecht, and Allen Sinai. ...
Mark Zandi.
Thank you, Madam Speaker. I want to thank you for the opportunity, and all the House leaders, for the opportunity to be here today. I thought it was a very fruitful meeting, and I made three points in the meeting. First, I think the fiscal stimulus, the recovery package, is working. I don’t think it is any accident that the recession has come to an end just about the same time that the stimulus is providing its maximum economic benefit. I think it has been very successful, most importantly the benefits to unemployed workers, as well as to help state government. I think that has been key, along with the other aspects of the stimulus.
The second point is that the recovery is still very fragile and still very tentative. I think the risks to the recovery are quite significant and the possibility of the economy slipping back into a recession next year are uncomfortably high for a number of reasons – most important of which is what is going on the job market, the fact that businesses while they are curtailing their layoffs, they have not begun to hire more aggressively. I think that is a function of a number of things, a lack of confidence, a lack of credit, and therefore I think, this gets to point number three, which is that it is very important for policy makers to remain aggressive and continue to do more, and I listed a number of things which I think would be very helpful.
Most obviously, I think extended unemployment insurance benefits should be extended through the end of 2010. Right now under the current stimulus they expire at the end of 2009, and they need to be extended. I think the first-time homebuyer tax credit should be extended into mid-next year to help support the housing market which is still incredibly fragile. I think accelerated depreciation of net operating loss carryback, which also expires at the end of this year should be extended into the 2010 and the conforming loan limits that are temporarily higher through the end of 2009 should be extended through the end of 2010. So a number of things should be extended through 2010 to make sure that the economy, the recovery is going to evolve into a self sustaining economic expansion.
And let me say this: I think our focus on the fiscal situation and deficit is very important in the long run, but I think it is also very appropriate to run a larger near term budget deficit to make sure that this economy gets out of this situation and gets on a self sustaining economic track. Thank you.