20 or 30 years ago I definitely would have agreed with you.
Unfortunately, given today's demographics of the country, not only will he go well above 40%, he is still a definite favorite to win in November.
Sorry, but not buying the demographic argument, what you do have today, that the electoral college likely won’t reflect how bad of a routing its going to be. His EC vote will be closer than previous losses of such magnetude, but he can’t win.
when 1 in 5 of your parties registered voters are saying flat out, they intend to vote for the other guy when polled, you can’t win, demographics or not. 20% of democratic voters is about 6% of the vote, a 6 percent vote swing in and of itself, even if the swing voters break even is a 56/44 los for Obama. Now add into that, that he’s down in every single demographic from his 2008 highs.. Swing voters are likely to brea 3-2 if not 2-1 for Romney, and you are looking at a route we haven’t seen in a long time.
As I said, I think on election day, Obama cannot get above low 40s, and in reality, will be lucky to see 40%
The reality is that Romney is going to win, any base that would be for Obama will be so “depressed” that their turnout will be much, much lower. Trust me.