Posted on 07/31/2012 8:48:55 PM PDT by Nachum
Assad's not our boy any more than Stalin was, but it's not in our interest to have the Muslim Brotherhood control Syria, just as it was a good thing that the Nazis never got to conquer Russia.
It's one of many possibilities - (1) they assassinated four bigwigs, and believe the high command is in disarray and the regime only needs a nudge to collapse, (2) they are getting picked apart piece by piece and need the regime to focus its efforts in one area so that they can regroup elsewhere, (3) they need to show progress in order to get their foreign funders to continue ponying up cash, (4) they have the regime on the ropes and see this as the death blow or (5) they are being a little impatient and have decided to bet it all on one roll of the dice. My guess is that it's a combination of 1, 2, 3 and 5. I think Assad will get this cleaned up pretty quickly because he is willing to do the one thing that works well in countering insurgents - massacring the civilians providing logistical support for them (whether out of sympathy for their cause or coercion). The Mongols are probably the most notorious example, although the Nazis came pretty close - guerrilla warfare was a minuscule problem in Nazi-occupied Europe, although not as insignificant as it was for Mongol-occupied lands.
I think you are probably right on the money.
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What do you think about the coup in Mali (Al Qaeda take over?) and Guinea-Bisseau (new narco state?) (sic)?
the rebels ARE jihadis. they are chasing Christians out of Aleppo etc.
It would be very interesting to know exactly what type of portable SAMS the rebels are getting. That is, are they Russian or Chinese make, or western designs? I would not be surprised if the administration or one or more of our NATO allies are quietly arming the rebels through various back channels. No proof of that, of course. Just a gut feeling.
As for the conflict in Syria itself...man, talk about no winning option. Assad is a butcher, the rebels have links to Al Qaeda (or, in some cases, *are* Al-Qaeda), and the Syrian people are getting massacred between the two.
Big news that seems to be ignored about Syria, Assad has concluded talks with the Syrian Kurds giving them independence leading to uniting the Kurds in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey....this little NATO/MB/ Saudi intervention may have just opened up the whole region to war.
Don't have the foggiest. Sub-Saharan Africa has always been a mystery to me.
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