Polling is mostly left-wing oriented.
It will typically favor the Democrat in the early polls, hoping to demoralize the Republican electorate and encourage its favored Democrat base, and all the stuff that goes with that impression-building, like contributions from the moneyed groups who want to be with the winner, favorable punditry, etc.
The pollsters, even the left-wing ones, do know what’s going on with public sentiment, but they will keep that hidden lest it hurt their candidates.
However, these pollsters also want to preserve their credibility so they can be hired in future campaigns. So in the last two weeks of the campaign, they will start showing honest numbers hoping they will match well with the final election results.
You saw this in 1980, when the polls had Reagan and Carter in a dead heat, when anyone with a brain would see that Carter was toast. Then in the last two weeks, they claimed there was a great shift to Reagan. Really - did you know anyone who made their mind up in the last two weeks?
Likewise, they had Mondale in a dead heat, on his way to winning Minnesota (and only Minnesota, by a mere 10,000 votes). They had Dukakis up 17 points over Bush the Elder. The 1994 Congress? also a dead heat until the election came close.
So expect to see the polls have Obama, the Carter clone, running even or even slightly ahead of Romney up until Halloween. Then to preserve their credibility, the polls will show Romney slightly in the lead until election day. Thus after the election they can brag that they called the results, and claim that there was a huge shift in the independents and undecideds over to Romney.
Want a good indicator of this election? Do you know any people who voted for McCain who are now going to vote for Obama? Now, have you heard of any people who voted for Obama who are now sick of him and will not vote for him again? The traffic is all in one direction.
Unless he blows it by doing something dumb, like changing on illegal immigration because of RINO establishment pressure, the current polling means that Romney will win over 300 electoral votes.
Bookmark this so you can congratulate me on November 7th.
Brilliant analysis.
I agree in theory, but I think there might be a possibility that the liberal media will actually conspire to show Obama down 20 points right before the election to scare the Bejesus out of the Democratic base to get out the vote.
And even though I am not a conspiracy theorist kook, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if this administration pulled out an October Surprise.
For example, they could use the opportunity to stage a phony terrorist attack by Syria against us, and that could be a pretext for war.
And you’d have that idiot John McCain leading the charge for Obama’s re-election because he is itching to go to war with Syria.
All presidents get 90% approval in the first weeks of war.
That being said, outside any long shot conspiracies, I think your analysis is on the money.