I disagree.
I pretty much side with Rasmussen: Obama: 247 - Romney: 191 - Toss-up: 100
All of the toss-up states are too close to call, but that simply means that Romney must prevent Obama from taking only 23 of them. That’s not impossible, of course, but that does put Romney on the defensive.
If Romney could put pennsylvania or michigan in play that would really help him. Pennsylvania is numerically his best bet, but Michigan has a family connection. Choosing a dynamic VP from one of those 2 states might help him since he’s running well in other toss-up states, except in Ohio he’s only 2 down and in Virginia he’s only one down.
I’ve written this before but it bears repeating. Obama will lose all the states he flipped in 2008. The states he wins, will be by a much smaller margin the states he loses will be a blow-out.
Obama will suffer the largest percentage popular vote loss since the Duke back in 1988 but maintain a higher percentage of the EC vote than the popular vote indicates.