I’ve watched these elections for years now, and I’ve learned not to ignore the polls. They certainly aren’t the end all and be all, but at the end, they’re very good.
What I’d really like to see are Romney’s own internal polls. As a businessman, he’d want accurate data. I’m betting he has a decent polling system doing.
Let me give him some good advice. Quit the rope-a-dope here in Ohio, and defend yourself...if you desire to win.
The fact that Romney is not on the attack, not doing things to get attention or buzz tells me that his internal polling shows him in a comfortable lead in the states that matter. He showed in the primary that if he was behind he could get nasty and get big. His conservative (in strategy not necessarily ideology) campaign is the sign of a guy who knows he can wait out the clock and win as long as he doesn’t do something stupid.
I would like to see the internals for both candidates. I think Obama must have terrible internals given his frantic and scattered efforts. He has been outspending Romney 3 to 1 since the end of the GOP primaries. Obama has about $100 million more in his campaign chest than Romney. The fact that Obama has been below 50% in almost all the polls for a long time is not a good sign for an incumbent. Obama is losing among independents and he will be hard pressed to get anywhere near the 43% of the white vote he received in 2008.
Ohio will be critical, but other states like WI and MI could be in play this time around. And states like VA, NC, and IN will probably shift to Romney in 2012. VA is the one I am worried about along with FL. If Romney gets those two, I bleive he wins easily. Due to the changing demographics, VA will be close.