[OldGoatCPO]

The RCP average is useless because they average polls that do not utilize the same polling message, data or demographics. One poll may be general population another may be likely voters, another registered voters etc. Pick on pol and follow it, I choose Rasmussen because of their mention of giving a rolling average. Polls are useless until after the Conventions are over, they are a snapshot in time. This poll comes after the 4th holiday when most people are detached, does not reflect dismal job numbers from Friday etc. It will move up and down for the next few months. I will start worrying when Obama is consistently above 50% with Rasmussen in Sep and Oct.

[xzins]

RCP has been a decent barometer the past few election cycles. It averages name polls with decent samples that use either registered or likely voters.

I think it’s still fair 4 months out to be using registered voter polls, but not for much more than another month or so. Registered are fully able to vote legally already, it’s just that not all of them will. The pollsters should be making strides in refining down to likely voters as these people indicate whether they will or won’t participate this time around.