“He is not winning”
I agree with most of what you state, but the result of a poll like this is that even though a good majority of voters believe Obama’s change was bad for America, he is still almost virtually tied with Romney.
This says more about the Romney campaign than about Obama. Romney should have a definitive lead with the baggage Obama is carrying, but that is not the case
Romney is failing to project himself as a positive alternative to Obama.
You may be right...I am not in the Romney camp, other than the fact that there is no realistic alternative. I feel like they were doing a damn good job into mid June, but it seems to be flat right now.
I am not an expert on polling by any stretch, but I am not sure how much of a lead we could expect right now in mid-summer. Obama’s polls are pretty much where they have been for the past 2-2.5 years, so it may be that Romney’s campaign is happy where they are at this stage. Certainly none of Obama’s or his campaign’s language is projecting any sense of winning. They are using desperate moves and outright lies in ads and speeches. They have virtually nothing legitimate to campaign on.
Additionally, I don’t know how much of a lead a challenger can build on an incumbent at this stage. Obama’s numbers are low, and Romney is tracking slightly ahead. Until all voters are paying attention (not watching Olympics, baseball, at the pool, etc), it may be hard for a challenger to do much in terms of building a decisive lead. Most voters aren’t like us, watching every move. We see serious dissatisfaction with Obama, but no clear uprising for Romney at this stage. I am not yet too concerned, although Romney would be wise to be doing at least a small stream of positive Romney biographical ads right now...he ran some really effective ones here in Florida months ahead of the primary. I was impressed, despite working hard to defeat him.
I'm not a Romney fan, but because ObomaTax passed, I'm there!
But....Maybe Romney is doing the "If it ain't broke - don' t fix it" tactic. Let Oboma destroy himself.
Any movement by Romney gives Oboma fodder for an attack. Why not let Oboma sink on his own?
If Romney has ammo, he can fire at will when it really counts - the debates.