Not refuting what you said, but your post reminded me of a bumper sticker I saw years ago;
Good judgment comes from experience.
Experience comes from bad judgment.
};^)
From: Essays on Political Economy
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/15962/15962-h/15962-h.htm
By: Frederic Bastiat (1874)
“That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen”
In the department of economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law, gives birth not only to an effect, but to a series of effects. Of these effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously with its cause—it is seen. The others unfold in succession—they are not seen: it is well for us if they are foreseen. Between a good and a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference—the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen and also of those which it is necessary to foresee. Now this difference is enormous, for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favourable, the ultimate consequences are fatal, and the converse. Hence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good, which will be followed by a great evil to come, while the true economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil.
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Key ingredient, “that which should have been foreseen”.
There are 2 kinds of people. Those who do things and those who talk about doing things. Those who do things learn from experience, some good and some not good. With experience the perspective for reality increases. Perception of what is “real” is essential for leadership.