Surprise!
Posted on 07/06/2012 6:43:18 AM PDT by Perdogg
U.S. payrolls expanded by just 80,000 net jobs in June keeping the unemployment rate flat at 8.2 percent, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
so after it is upwardly revised next month, will unemployment go up to 8.3 or 8.4?
and next month, when businesses react to the huge dump Roberts just took on the constitution, I expect more layoffs
Unexpected again. How long can the pundits/economists keep missing the reality, before they adjust their expectations?
That one is easy.
The day after Baraq leaves office, the criteria will be reset.
So the actual unemployment is more like 14%?
U-6 unemployment at 14.9% - that’s 0.1% UP from last month.
I am glad this is coming in the middle of his bus tour.
Yep, as far as opansy and the lib media is concerned, every thing is 'unexpected'. These media pimps should be in jail.
It isn’t expectations that the economists have to adjust - it is their economic models.
Most modern macro-econ models are an outgrowth of the increased economic statistical measurement of the US and world economies post-WWII.
Since this is the first debt deflation we’ve had since the Great Depression, the post-WWII stats don’t reflect what happens during a debt deflation. Therefore, the expectations created by the economic models are simply incorrect.
The GOP has to train itself to focus on THAT number.
Remember boys & girls, when the unemployment numbers stay the same, the rate goes down. When the unemployment numbers go up, the rate stays the same. It’s the new Great Leader math program. Sign up today!
Will Romney dare to come out of the Very Safe Shade of the Petrified RINO Forest?
Will Marveleous Mitt of Bain Capital Fame dare to point out how he could do better than Obama?
Will - - - what? Sorry folks, not today. I’ve just been told that Romney is going to announce, soon, new additions to his communications team of NE USA Brainiacts. Maybe tomorrow - - , no that is Saturday.
Anyone stupid enough to believe this low-ball figure on unemployment deserves 4 more years of the Kenyan vulture.
Consensus yesterday morning was +75K until the ADP report came out then it went to +90K.
“Unexpected again. How long can the pundits/economists keep missing the reality, before they adjust their expectations?”
Yeah, you would think they’d learn to lowball the estimates just to save face. How much influence to the Dims have on who juggles the numbers ?
Surprise!
Market not liking the number (DJ -125, SP -13, NASDAQ -34). Why? Not bad enough to guarantee QE3 at the Fed’s August 1st meeting.
100 Million Americans un-employed
Morgan Stanley’s take in a report just issued:
* Mixed report. The payroll gain in June was only 80K, and revisions to prior months were inconsequential. But, hours and earnings were better than expected, pointing to a solid rise in June personal income.
* In fact, the aggregate weekly payrolls gauge — which combines the impact of changes in employment, hours and hourly earnings — jumped 0.7% in June. This represents one of the better gains seen in the past few years.
* Also, the temp help sector — often considered a leading indicator of labor demand — posted a solid 25,000 gain in employment.
* However, the report seemed to reinforce the notion that the loss of momentum in employment growth seen over the course of recent months represents more than just a weather-related payback. In particular, we saw outright job declines in sectors such as retail trade, transportation,
information services and private education. Also, the health care category rose only +11,000 — at the lower end of the range that has prevailed over the past 20 yrs or so.
* Based on the figures for manufacturing employment and hours — together with auto assembly schedules showing a sharp rebound in activity during June — it looks like industrial production will register a decent gain in June (+0.4%), with the key manufacturing component running at
a solid +0.6%.
* The household survey data was pretty much in line with the establishment survey this month. The household measure of employment was +128,000 and the participation rate was unchanged at 63.8%. The performance of the participation rate over the past few months has been generally consistent with the view expressed in a research note we published back in March. We tried to explain the fall-off in labor force participation seen in recent years and noted that demographic patterns should contribute to some flattening out of labor force participation going forward. This means that job growth is going to have to move above +125,000 or so per month in order to continue to bring down the
unemployment rate.
* This report was probably not weak enough to trigger QE3 at the August 1 FOMC announcement. However, a number of Fed officials seemed to be clinging to the notion that employment growth would rebound once the weather-related payback was behind us. This view now seems too optimistic. So, even though the FOMC may not take further action on Aug 1, there is likely to be a serious discussion of policy options aimed at dealing with an economy that is no longer making progress toward reducing unemployment.
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