Posted on 07/04/2012 5:04:34 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
Ping.
Thanks. I’ll spend some time digesting this.
bookmark 4 later
FYI good reference material.
It is pathetic.
AMERICANS HATE ROMNEYCARE AND OBAMACARE.
Mr. RomneyCARE MUST drop out and save America.
We need to remember, too, that the propaganda press had Mondale up by 20 points over Reagan in the ‘84 election.
So if you’re relying on the Goebbel’s press to crunch your numbers...well, maybe you should consider finding a different data set to work your numbers.
Thanks a lot. You have put some good effort into this. I’ll be referring back to it often I’m sure.
I must say that I am disappointed by the amount of polling that Rasmussen is doing this cycle compared to 2008. There are several races that need updated polls, and Rasmussen has slowed down his campaign polling compared to past cycles.
I can think of a few reasons why his polling has slowed. These are my own conjectures of the possible, not based on any data:
1. He's running out of money because sponsors don't like to have to discuss the implications of his poll results.
2. He's self-censoring because he doesn't want to be the reason why others are forced to discuss his poll results.
3. He's being boycotted, driving up his polling costs.
4. He doesn't care anymore.
-PJ
I started a report on my analysis of the "expert" polling groups' 2010 House race track record, based on the work I did for Key House Races on FR.
I'll publish that report soon, but the early take is that they rode the fence for as long as possible. It was my opinion that they were trying to astroturf people into believing that the backlash against Obama was not the wave that people were saying. It wasn't until the very end that they were forced to land with Republicans only to save their reputations as pundits. But they waited until the last possible moments to break.
-PJ
Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47.
Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be surprises as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.
Links to primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.
Let's roll!
| State | Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate |
|---|---|---|
| AZ* | Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#) | |
| CT* | Primary 8/14/12 | |
| FL | Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#) | Bill Nelson+ |
| HI* | Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#) | |
| IN* | Richard Mourdock | Joe Donnelly |
| MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren |
| ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) |
| MI | Primary 8/7/12 | Debbie Stabenow+ |
| MO | Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#) | Claire McCaskill+ |
| MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester+ |
| ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp |
| NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey |
| NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ |
| NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich |
| NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley |
| OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ |
| PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ |
| VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine |
| WA | Primary 8/7/12 | Maria Cantwell+ |
| WI* | Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#) | |
| WV | John Raese | Joe Manchin+ |
| *Open Seat +Incumbent #GOP Frontrunner | ||
If you would like to be pinged to Political Junkie's excellent White House and Senate analysis threads, Freepmail me and I'll keep a PJ Ping List.
After 11 years, I'm still not worthy of some kind of sidebar recognition?
Do you find MSM articles more factual or worthy of FR eyes than what I just wrote?
Whom do YOU want to win the election? How are you working to motivate the people?
-PJ
You have a big job in front of you. Let us know what you find.
This statement by you gives me faith in your analysis:
“It wasn’t until the very end that they were forced to land with Republicans only to save their reputations as pundits.”
Best of luck, FRiend.
Baraq is toast in Indiana.
We’ve got great candidates for Governor (Mike Pence) and Senator (Richard Mourdock who ousted Lugar in the primary).
The Independence day parade in my town was probably the biggest ever, with a huge contingent of Catholics waving “Support Religious Freedom” signs - that’s all new.
I saw a guy from the D party trying to hand out fliers and NOBODY would even take one.
I think the Supreme Court decision on BaraqqiCare has really energized patriots.
Good work, PJ2.
Keep it coming.
Also, please add me to your ping list.
I’d love to be on your ping list. Your research is so thorough! Thank you for sharing all your hard work.
Now ora et labora, y’all.
A few factors that need to be factored in:
The good:
Republicans are usually -1.5 to 2.5% in the generic congressional poll. Rs are now +7%, a huge but quiet shift.
Ds always poll 2-3% better than the election results. This year, people are afraid to tell a pollster that they will not vote for the Orama because they afraid to be seen as racist, but when the curtain is closed, will do so in huge numbers..
Most importantly, the people who will decide the election, not us or the DU crowd, but the middle 18%, aren't interested in the election yet.
Finally, the bad:
If he is not totally assured he will win, Obama will do something huge at the D convention; probably dump Biden.
We shall see.
Nah!
Mitt was shoved down our throats day 1 by the GOPe.
Anyone-
Who is a good alternative to Obama that we can support?
Thank you.
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