1) The % is irrelevant if the fervor and intensity is down. I predict that black intensity, for example, will be marginally down, but enough to make a difference. I predict with much more confidence that youth intensity (18-25) will be waaaay down. (The % there is also down 25% from 2008) So, if the %s are high, but total numbers voting is low, % is somewhat irrelevant.
2) the "key state" polls are more troubling, but still, AZ doesn't count. Romney won't lose AZ. There are four states where it may count: NV, CO, NM, and VA---the latter being the one where Hispanics would influence the election the least.
None of it makes a whit of difference if Romney keeps widening his lead among whites and working Americans. No one can with the presidency without winning that demo.