Don't look now, but the changeover has already started. The big fleets are swapping from diesel to natgas as fast as tney can, and spending big bucks to do so. This will drive the broad installation of refill infrastructure and enable the passenger car fleet to also switch."We have much more than 100 years of oil in the U.S. So natgas is great in electrical generation and heating applications, but for motor vehicles petroleum is and always will be king."
. . . but are the big fleets you refer to long-haul trucks which can use LNG, or they short-haul, intermittent service vehicles for which CNG is the only practical NG option? Because of the size/weight of the tankage required, CNG is IMHO more more like battery power than gasoline-fueled power. Even LNG requires more volume of tankage than the energy-equivalent quantity of gasoline . . .I’m all for NG fuel, for fleet use where economy of scale can minimize the inconveniences involved. But for the personal car, IMHO it doesn’t really work. The fuel cost savings just won’t justify the inconvenience.
With a home refueling compressor, I don't see a lot of inconvenience.
Chrysler, Ford, GM Introduce Natural-Gas Pickup Trucks
http://enr.construction.com/economics/quarterly_cost_reports/2012/0326-ford-gm-and-ram-introduce-natural-gas-pickup-trucks.asp
...
Responding to demands for cheaper, cleaner fuels than gasoline or diesel, Ford, General Motors and Ram have introduced new pickups that are designed to run on compressed natural gas (CNG) and gasoline.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
These are dual fuel vehicles. They can run on Natural Gas AND Gasoline. They have tanks for both.
IMO, I don't think that LNG is a viable option. CNG is the way to go, even for long haul.
The "inconvenience" is almost totally due to the scarcity of infrastructure. Once CNG "fillup stations" are as ubiquitous as current "gas stations", the inconvenience disappears. I'm well aware of the energy density issue, but if the sole inconvenience is that I have to fill up more often, I'll accept that.
I stand by my original assertions.....fleets will be first, and drive the installation of infrastructure, then passenger cars will switch. One datum pointing in this direction is that most fleet "fill up" points that are established also allow the general public (early CNG adopters) to use them.
Further, I think that the order of switchover will be large local fleets (UPS/FEDEX/and similar) first, then long-haul fleets with CNG added to truck stops, and then the general public. Pretty much inevitable given the supply/demand trends.