Sorry fee, they are building up rapidly. To anyone watching what is going on in their shipyards it is self evident.
Their growth rate makes it plain that they are doing a lot more than just relacing their old designs. If that were the case, their rate would be close to xero...or maybe 10-10% percent in the positive. But their major combatant fleet is growing at ten times that rate. In fatc, many of their old Luda’s have been upgraded with modern ASMs and sensors to let them work in concert with the newer vessels and have not been replaced at all.
So, as I said, a 142% growth rate is pretty phenominal for a 6-8 year period. Particularly when our rate is negative.
The 65,000 ton Varyag is a credible threat in the concenrated spaces of the Western Pacific within the Island chains. And to anything short of a full US Carrier Strike Group ready for battle, it is a focre that most other nations cannot match. Particularly when also protected by ground air coverage in numbers. They intend to have three carriers by 2020...we’ll see if they make that. Indiciations are that either the second or third will incroporate at leat two cats.
It is obvious that there is significant concern by the professional naval planners in the nations of the Western Pacfic to what China is doing. All of them that can, are embarking on significant modernization and buildup programs. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan (as much as she can), Australia, India...and ourselves are all involved. We are moving more ships away from other areas and into the Pacific...and our negatoive growth rate is slowing and will actually uptick in the next 3-5 years so we start gaining in numbers again. This is happening precisely because all of these nations view the situation as one that is serious enough to warrant being countered...so we are doing so.
Finally, there are a couple of critical issues about the relative value of dollars as spent by the US and China on military systems.
1) China rouitinely is much less transparent about what they are actually spending and we have to estimate what the real number is. This number is politicized both ways so we aren’t really sure what the real number is...which from a perspective of able planning and deterrent is not a good situation.
2) The Chinese get a lot more bang for their buck than the US. Much of the regulation, safety, benefits, etc. that are necesarily included in every dollar we spend are either not included at all in China, or they are very much less expensive for the Chinese because they do not have the type of society and controls in those areas that we do.
Anyhow, as I indicate at the site...it bears serious consideration and considertion in our go forward planning.
So, what may be a 100 million US dollars in China spending may well cost the US 180 million or more becasue of such considerations.
The last OB I saw of the PLA navy is 2/3 of her fleet is still from the 1970’s or prior. Luda need air cover and its ASW sonar sucks. They are very old ships. It is like taking a Fletcher class destroyer, give it upgraded electronics and SSM and declare it equal to an Ticonderoga CGM??!! China has the same problem faced by any nation that intends to build a world class navy, it costs more to replace old designs with modern designs. If China builds a new destroyer and retires an old destroyer, and expands the fleet once all the old destroyers are replaced, then your hyper alarm is justified. If the new Chinese ships are replacing old Soviet and Chinese design subs, destroyers, frigates and coastal missile/torpedo boats that is another story. Does that mean we ignore China completely, the answer is NO. China’s expanding into carrier aviation, carriers, ocean going amphib ships needs to be paid attention to. But to declare that she now possesses the ability to take on the US navy is a bit premature. A Varyag class carrier may intimidate Vietnam/Phillipines, but not Japan and South Korea. Definitely not the US Navy.
If China builds four Nimitz class carriers, more nuc subs plus all the auxillary ships to support them guarded by squadrons of destroyers and frigates plus means to support it beyond China Sea (like bases stocked with shops, parts, personnel). Yeah, China is a serious guy on the block. Today I say monitor China, but I would not be screaming alarm yet. In the mean time the US needs to resolve its debts and deficits. Anything that will cripple US Defense is our deficits and debts.