>>>”If Assad survives in a weakened state, good. If the Brotherhood takes over, they will at least not be so thick with Iran, because they don’t even view Shiites as Muslims.”<<<
I am no fan of Assad.
But, I very much doubt MB will not be in bed with the Iranian Regime. Iranian Regime has its tentacles far & wide, even in places you & I, for example, might not much suspect or expect, including, am afraid Israel.
A point that I like to re-emphasize & reiterate, as I have done many times before in various FR posts, is that “We” expect a fight or conflict between Shi’ites & Sunnis if we vent it. True, that sectarian conflict has existed for centuries, BUT, in this case, so long as “Western” “Threat” or “Enemy” exists (or perceived to exist), they will both give that priority, join hands when necessary, and will not focus on fighting each other beyond *tit for tat* or occasional beheading - we need to be mindful of that stance by them.
On paper that will be what they both want to do, destroy the Great Satan and all, but while they won’t have an all-out sectarian war, they will not cooperate well with each other. Arabs generally do not cooperate with one another even under ideal situations. Some incarnation of the pre-Islamic duality between Qys and Yemen always set them at each other. Iranians have a totally different mind set, and a much longer attention span, and that to Arabs makes them suspect in and of itself. They will both talk cooperation, do a little cooperation, and then age-old mistrust blossoms again and they’ll be at each other’s throats in “tit for tat” and then they’ll remember the Great Satan again, and patch things over, but it never is really patched over.
The Alawites were much more compatible with Iran, because their religion is less important to them, so politics could come first. But to MB, while they will want very much to give the Great Satan priority, they will be chronically unable to efficiently cooperate with these “heretics,” because they’re obsessed with their version of Mad-Mo-ism above and beyond all practical considerations, such as political alliances and common enemies.
Assad and Ahmadenijad were like Tintin and Captain Haddock. MB and Ahamdenijad will be like Laurel and Hardy or the Three Stooges, as they continue to have Abbott and Costello-style misunderstandings.