This is my take on the Wanggaard race:
Only heavily GOP precincts from Racine County have reported (including a few from outside Wanggaard’s SD). All of next-door Kenosha has reported, though, and Barrett carried it 51-49. In 2010, Walker carried Kenosha by 51-48 but won Racine (which is just south of Milwaukee County, where he was County Executive) by 56-43. If Racine outperforms Kenosha by the same margin as in 2010, then Walker will carry it by around 54-45 this time. This would include some GOP precincts that are outside Wanggaard’s SD, but it still would give Walker a 53-46 or so victory in Wanggaard’s SD. Wanggaard appears to be doing as well as Walker so far (in a limited sample), so I think he’ll hold on, which will make me very happy indeed.
Sounds good!
Nice analysis!
Thanks for the analysis, this one IS a nailbiter.
“STATE SENATE, DISTRICT 21
Van Wanggaard (R): 17852
John Lehman (D): 15748
47% of wards reporting”
Lehman is closing fast and I’d hate for the unions to get anything, anything.